Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2018

...FLOOD RISK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

For the spring of 2018, the Southeast River Forecast Center is
calling for a near normal river flood potential for north and
central Georgia. Given that spring is a characteristically active
period for river flooding, this outlook indicates that north and
central Georgia can expect to see river flooding that will be nearly-
typical in number of events and magnitude.

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE.
Upper and lower soil moisture conditions have become Abnormally
Moist to Excessively Wet over north and central Georgia due to
recent heavy rainfall. Average daily stream flows for the past 30
days have been running normal to above normal across the state.

CLIMATE REGIME.
Following a normal weather pattern last fall, the winter pattern has
been relatively active, with weather systems impacting north and
central Georgia every one to three days, and lasting one to two days
at a time. More significant rainfall amounts have been accompanying
these weather systems at least once per week. This active weather
pattern is expected to continue, with the long term outlook showing
above normal precipitation chances over the state through the spring
months.

RAINFALL.
During the past 90 days, near normal rainfall has occurred over
north Georgia, with slightly below normal to near normal rainfall
over central portions of the state. Rainfall amounts ranged from 6
to 15 inches, with pockets of 15 inches or more over the higher
elevations of north Georgia. More recently, the amounts observed
over the last 30 days have improved rainfall deficits greatly and
eliminating the Severe Drought conditions that developed over
northwest and west central Georgia earlier this year. The rainfall
amounts over the last 30 days range from 6 to 15 inches (or 125 to
200 percent of normal) generally north of the I-85 corridor, and 3
to 6 inches (or 75 to 125 percent of normal) south of this line.

RECENT FLOODING.
Heavy rainfall occurring at the beginning of February produced minor
river flooding at several locations, particularly in north and
northwest Georgia in the Coosa, Tennessee and upper Chattahoochee
River basins. Although conditions remained wet through the month,
river rises were largely below minor flood levels. Ongoing heavy
rainfall and accumulations over the last few days have produced
minor river flooding in far northwest Georgia, in the Coosa and
Tennessee River basins. At this time, with wet conditions and higher
than normal streamflows, the area is primed for additional flooding
events as heavy rainfall occurs.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS.
Overall pool levels of the major reservoirs in north and central
Georgia are near or above target levels for this time of year, with
a few at or approaching summer pool levels. Normal rainfall should
allow reservoirs to be filled to summer pool levels.

DROUGHT AREAS.
Severe Drought conditions have improved, with only areas of
Abnormally Dry or Moderate Drought remaining over the state. As of
this week, Drought conditions have completely ended over large
portions of north Georgia, with Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought
conditions remaining over far northwest Georgia and over middle and
central Georgia. Improvements are expected to continue over the next
few weeks.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK.
The southeast U.S. is expected to move into a more transitional
environment in the spring with increasing chances of heavy rain. The
current outlook for March through May is for equal chances of above
or below normal rainfall over the majority of the state, with above
normal precipitation chances over the far north Georgia counties.
Borderline neutral or La Nina conditions are expected to persist
into the summer months.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.
Considering the rainfall expected for the next three months, and the
pre-existing moist to wet soil conditions, the outlook is for a near
normal chance of flooding this spring in north and central Georgia.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for north and central Georgia, please see the following websites.

NWS WFO Atlanta:  www.weather.gov/atlanta
Southeast River Forecast Center: www.weather.gov/serfc
NWS WFO Atlanta - Lake Levels: weather.gov/ffc/rrm
NOAA AHPS - Rainfall Totals: water.weather.gov/precip
U.S. Drought Portal: www.drought.gov U.S.
Drought Monitor: www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
U.S. Geological Survey - Water Resources of GA: ga.water.usgs.gov

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Spring Flood
Outlook, please contact:

NWS WFO Atlanta
4 Falcon Drive Peachtree City, GA 30269
Phone: 770-486-1133
Email: sr-ffc.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Belanger



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