Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1140 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 8

This is the final Flood Outlook for the 2018 season.

This is the eight in a series of annual Flood Potential Statements
intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding
(not flash flooding) over the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh,
Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins. These statements
will provide information on flood threat conditions such as recent
precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water equivalent,
river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any future
river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid between April 12 to 26, 2018.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York
office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Below normal. Between 2.0 and 3.0 inches
of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across the
entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Normal. There is no snow cover anywhere across the
HSA. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be
found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab)
or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Normal. No ice exists anywhere across the HSA. The
river ice season is over.

STREAMFLOW - Below normal to normal. Real time water data is
available from the United States Geological Survey by visiting
http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long
Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate Prediction
Center can be found at the following websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are variable, running slightly below normal to above
normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - Low pressure moving through the Great
Lakes will lift a warm front north of the region today. This
front will settle southward through the area as a backdoor cold
front on Saturday night. Meanwhile, a complex area of low pressure
and its associated fronts will move from the Ohio Valley to the
Middle Atlantic on Monday, then into New England on Tuesday. Up to
two inches of rainfall is possible with the system. Another area
of low pressure will approach the region from the west on
Wednesday. The overall 8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall flood potential is normal.

This is the final Flood Outlook for the 2018 season.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 26, 2018:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...Normal
FLOODING...None
RECENT PRECIPITATION...Below normal
SNOW COVER...Normal
RIVER ICE...Normal
STREAMFLOW...Normal
SOIL MOISTURE...Normal
GROUND WATER...Variable, below normal to above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Slightly below normal to above normal

$$

Kruzdlo



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