Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 220635
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather conditions will remain confined to portions of the
Southwest/southern Rockies today - partially in response to a
mid-level low moving slowly northward across the Great Basin.  On
the southeastern periphery of this low, a band of 35-45 kt mid-level
flow will persist atop dry areas of Arizona and western New Mexico.
Vertical mixing processes, in conjunction with a favorable surface
pressure gradient and lee troughing in the High Plains, will result
in areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across
portions of Arizona and western New Mexico.

...Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern will foster areas of breezy, dry
conditions across the region - especially during the afternoon.
Areas of 20+ mph surface flow will be most likely from northeastern
Arizona through west-central and northwestern New Mexico.
Meanwhile, critically low RH values will exist across the region,
and this dry airmass will also develop eastward toward the Rio
Grande Valley region of central New Mexico.  The critical area is
drawn where critically dry fuels will exist in addition to critical
atmospheric conditions.  Just east of this area, antecedent rainfall
that occurred Monday afternoon should temper fuel states enough such
that dry fuels will exist on a more isolated basis.  Thus, an
elevated fire weather delineation in is place to address this
scenario.

South of the critical area (into southeastern Arizona and
southwestern New Mexico), surface wind speeds should be a bit weaker
and fall just short of critical criteria despite <15% RH values
during peak heating.  An elevated fire weather delineation remains
in place across these areas.

..Cook.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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