Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 191934
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Warming trend for the coming weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures warming to what are more typical values
for the third week of April are expected heading into the weekend.
High pressure building into the Great Lakes will keep any precipitation
away...and also allow for relatively light winds through Sunday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....18-23...except 25-30 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....46-51...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (340).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 15 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....52-57...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....21-26.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....49-54...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 48-53 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (500).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....52-57...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....21-26...except around 31 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....47-52...except around 41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (400).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....24-29...except 35-40 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 15 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....49-54...except around 41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (250).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....22-27.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph becoming north around 3
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....48-53...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....25-30.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 15 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....20-25.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph decreasing to around 9
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (580).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....25-30.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (310).
Mixing Height.......6800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB


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