Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 181015
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Camp Edwards Cantonment Area...Northeast Forest and Fire Management, LLC
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
615 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny conditions are expected across the inner Cape through
the day today. Winds will be mainly west-southwesterly, increasing
through the morning with sustained 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph
by late morning and early afternoon. Given this flow is onshore,
temperatures will likely top out in the mid to upper 40s. This
will limit min RH values to 40-50 percent.

If still ongoing, this evening winds slacken and shift more to
the south but generally remain around 10 mph. Rain showers move in
during the early morning hours with on and off rainfall expected
throughout the day.

OUTLOOK...Friday through Tuesday...
Scattered Showers are possible Friday, then drier weather for the
weekend. Temperatures generally remain below normal through the
weekend, warming into early next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Dewpoint............29 increasing to 33 late in the afternoon.
Min apparent temp...29.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Mixing height.......2600-4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (56300-89900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................64 increasing to 68 early, then decreasing to
                    58 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......11 decreasing to 9.0, then decreasing to 3.5
                    early increasing to 4.5 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  43  45  46  48  42  36  31  31  32  32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............37  38  40  42  44  46  47  48  48  48  48
Dewpoint........28  27  27  28  28  29  30  31  32  33  34
RH..............70  64  59  57  53  51  51  51  54  56  58
Heat index (F)..29  30  32  34  36  39  40  41  41  41  41
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..13  14  15  16  17  17  18  18  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.21  22  23  25  26  26  28  28  28  29  29
Surface wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.13  14  15  16  17  17  18  18  18  18  18
Surface wnd gst.21  22  23  25  26  26  28  28  28  29  29
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  24  24  25  25  25  24  24  24  25  25
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............59  63  66  68  71  69  68  67  64  60  56
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/100068  75  80  85  90  88  86  84  75  66  56
Ceiling (kft)...12  11  11  9.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the morning. Chance of rain early
                    in the morning, then rain likely early in the
                    morning. Patchy fog early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 44 percent early in the
                    morning.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    south 5 to 6 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    south 5 to 6 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph shifting to the south 8
                    to 12 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2300-39000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................44 decreasing to 7.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......11 increasing to 20 early, then increasing to
                    25 late in the evening decreasing to 20
                    decreasing to 15 decreasing to 12 after
                    midnight decreasing to 9.0 decreasing to 6.0
                    early in the morning decreasing to 4.5.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  27  24  29  35  40  45  50  55  68  82  95
Weather cov.....                                    SCH CHC LKY
Weather type....                                    RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   40  40  40  40
Temp............47  46  45  44  43  43  42  42  41  40  40  40
Dewpoint........34  35  35  35  36  36  36  36  36  36  37  37
RH..............60  65  68  70  76  76  79  79  82  85  89  89
Heat index (F)..41  40  39  38  38  38  38  38  38  37  37  37
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..16  15  13  12  9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.25  22  18  16  14  12  10  8   7   7   7   7
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Surface wnd spd.16  15  13  12  9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5
Surface wnd gst.25  22  18  16  14  12  10  8   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.23  22  20  17  16  14  12  10  8   8   8   8
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   6   6
ADI.............44  19  18  12  11  9   8   7   5   5   5   5
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/100039  24  11  8   6   4   4   3   2   3   3   4
Ceiling (kft)...13  11  20  25  20  15  15  15  12  9.0 6.0 4.5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Patchy fog early in
                    the morning. Patchy fog in the late morning and
                    afternoon. Rain likely early in the morning.
                    Rain through early afternoon. Rain likely late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................44 percent increasing to 83 percent through
                    early afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Dewpoint............39.
Min apparent temp...36.
Surface winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......600-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4100-18700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................13 increasing to 23 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......4.0 decreasing to 0.8.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........94     91     96     98     95     90
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40     80     80     80     80     80
Temp............40     41     44     46     47     47
Dewpoint........38     40     41     41     41     41
RH..............92     96     89     83     79     79
Heat index (F)..37     37     39     41     42     43
20 ft wind......SE 5   E 6    E 8    E 9    NE 10  NW 9
20 ft wind gust.8      9      14     17     18     18
Surface wind....SE 5   E 6    E 8    E 9    NE 10  NW 9
Surface wnd gst.8      9      14     17     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    900    1100   1100   1300
Transport wind..S 8    E 9    E 12   E 13   NE 13  N 15
LVORI...........6      6      5      4      3      3
ADI.............9      10     14     17     17     22
Haines index....2      3      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/10004      5      10     12     12     16
Ceiling (kft)...4.0    3.0    2.0    0.8    0.8    0.8

$$
Forecaster...WTB/Doody
Requested by...Joel R. Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806918.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/18/18
.EMAIL joelcarlson@ne-ffm.com
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