Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 241728
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for OK BAR...USDA
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1128 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1200 MDT on April 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
A warm day today with very low relative humidity. A back door cool
front will make it`s way into the burn area after sunrise tomorrow and
drop temps about 5 degrees and a slight rise in relative humidity with
a wind shift to the east to southeast.  Temps will rebound for
Thursday before another front moves through Thursday night and brings
added moisture to the area and a chance for thunderstorms going
into the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-southwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL increasing to 14300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51800 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (120200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........15     15     25
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............84     87     88
RH..............12     9      8
20 ft wind......W 8    W 11   W 12
20 ft wind gust.20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....14300  14300  14300
Transport wind..SW 7   SW 8   SW 9
Haines index....4      5      5
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........40     50     60     60     60     60
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............85     78     71     67     62     58
RH..............7      9      11     13     17     19
20 ft wind......W 10   W 9    W 10   W 11   W 7    W 6
20 ft wind gust.20     20     15     15     15     10
Haines index....6      6      6      5      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......11200 ft AGL increasing to 15200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64600 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (123300 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........47        47        45        40
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............57        66        78        83
RH..............22        16        13        11
20 FT wind......W 6G10    NE 6G15   E 8G15    E 7G15
Mix hgt (ft)....11200     11200     15200     15200
Transport wind..W 8       W 7       W 7       W 9
Haines index....4         4         4         5
Vent Rate.......GOOD      GOOD      VYGD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...USFS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807659.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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