Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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704
FNUS75 KGJT 192255
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Skipper Island Fire...Grand Junction Fire Department
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
455 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1700 MDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover is hampering the strongest gusts from
reaching the surface according to local observations. However any
breaks in the cloud cover through 1800 could still create some
stronger gusts. Critical fire weather conditions remain as humidity
is near the single digits. As the sun sets surface low pressure will
deepen to the west in Utah and this may keep upvalley or southeast
winds in the 10 to 15 degree range through the night. Virga aloft
could also keep a threat of gusty winds in place. Winds shift more
to the west by mid morning as this system moves to the east. Humidity
recovery will be slow but an not likely above 20 percent until
after midnight. Precipitation amounts will likely end up well under
a tenth of an inch with the passing storm system.


Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%).
Max temperature.....71-76 F.
Min humidity........7-12%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 TO 12 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 30 mph possible.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.
Haines Index........5 moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 27 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90%).
Min temperature.....40-45 F.
Max humidity........30-35%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 10 to 15 MPH occasional gusts up to
                    25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent, decreasing to fair after midnight.
Haines Index........5 moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL, decreasing to 5000 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....South 35 MPH, decreasing to 10 MPH after
                    midnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated showers.
Max temperature.....56-61 F.
Min humidity........28-32%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 MPH, becoming West by 1000.
Smoke dispersal.....Good, increasing to very good in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 very low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 MPH.

$$
Forecaster...Dennis Phillips
Requested by...Gus Hendricks
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807119.0/GJT
.EMAIL gush@gjcity.org



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