Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 201236
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Markham Springs...USFS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
736 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Minimum daytime relative humidity values will range from 25 to 35
percent across the remainder of the Heartland. Surface and transport
winds will remain light during this time period.

Minimum relative humidity values beyond Friday will remain above
35 percent.

Otherwise, dry and slightly warmer conditions will be the rule
across the Heartland region today and Saturday, as high pressure
slowly moves north and east of the area.

The next chance for rain will develop on Sunday. An area of low
pressure, moving over the Four Corners region of the desert
southwest today, will push into Oklahoma Saturday night, bringing
a chance of showers to southeast Missouri by daybreak on Sunday.
This area of low pressure will gradually move east, then south of
the Heartland region through Monday. Parts of the Heartland
region, especially southeast Missouri, west Kentucky, and extreme
southern Illinois, will see the best chances for showers into
Monday.

Another weather system is expected to dive southeast from the
northern Plains and Midwest by the middle of next week, bringing
another chance for showers.

Highs next week will be in the 60s, with lower 70s possible next
Friday. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Patchy frost early in the
                    morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northeast at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming east
                    5 to 7 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1100-2800
                    ft AGL increasing to 3600-4100 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 8 mph increasing to east 17 to 23
                    mph late in the morning, then decreasing to 12
                    to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  47  52  55  57  59  61  62  63  63
RH..............59  48  39  34  31  29  27  27  27  28
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.        10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.8 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0
Transp wind dir.S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   17  23  22  17  13  12  12  13  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......3000-4000 ft AGL decreasing to 1000-2000 ft AGL
                    early in the morning.
Transport winds.....East 16 to 23 mph increasing to 26 to 32 mph in
                    the late evening and early morning, then
                    shifting to the southeast around 21 mph after
                    midnight becoming south 0 to 9 mph early in the
                    morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MCR PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  59  56  53  50  49  48  47  46  45  44  43
RH..............32  37  43  48  54  56  58  60  63  62  65  67
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.0 2.0 1.2 1.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  18  21  23  26  30  32  30  21  9   0   0
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-2600 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5100 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 7 mph increasing to southeast 13 to
                    22 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............42     45     53     59     64     66
RH..............73     65     52     49     43     40
20 FT wind dir..E      E      E      E      E      E
20 FT wind spd..5      5      5      6      8      8
20 FT wind gust.                     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   1400   1600   1400   2600   4900
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      SE     SE     SE
Transp wind spd.0      7      21     21     16     13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Frank Spencer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807161.0/PAH
.EMAIL fspencer@fs.fed.us



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