Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS11 KWBC 250835
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
434 AM EDT WED APR 25 2018

VALID 12Z WED APR 25 2018 - 12Z SAT APR 28 2018

..DAY 1...

...WY BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING LATER
THIS EVENING AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION....WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AIDED BY 300 MB DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
THU AS THE JET AND MOISTURE POOL MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF ICING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

...DAY 2...

...MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THURSDAY EVENING.

THE PROBABILITY OF ICING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

DAY 3...

...NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN ORE...

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SHASTA/SISKIYOU RANGE NORTHWARD INTO THE ORE CASCADES LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MAKES ITS
WAY INLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE AREA.  GIVEN STRONG RIDGING TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...THINK THAT ANY RISK OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

...SAN JUAN RANGE OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO...

THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF 4 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...ANY
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE.

THE PROBABILITY OF ICING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

BANN







$$





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