Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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454 FXUS65 KABQ 011741 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1141 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Temperatures peak with breezy to locally windy southwest to west winds areawide today ahead of a system over the northern Rockies. The system moves north of the state Thursday cooling temperatures areawide along with the most notable cooling across far northeast and east central areas behind a backdoor front. Low clouds and patchy drizzle are expected across northeast areas Friday morning as the backdoor front moves through the rest of eastern New Mexico. Another backdoor front moves through eastern New Mexico Friday night into Saturday morning. This front combined with Gulf moisture moving in from the southeast and a weak disturbance will bring the chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night. A storm or two could be possible along the dryline across the New Mexico Texas state line Sunday afternoon and evening with stronger winds and critical fire weather conditions across western and central areas ahead of the next storm system. These stronger winds and critical fire weather conditions spread into eastern NM Monday as the system moves into the intermountain West. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 An upper level trough will move from the Pacific NW toward the central Rockies today, bringing increasing southwest flow aloft across the region with a deepening lee side trough. The lee side low is forecast to deepen to near 991mb across southeast CO, which is favorable placement to enhance winds across northeast NM. Overall, today will be a breezy to windy day, with the strongest winds across the northeast highlands/plains, although speeds are forecast to remain below advisory threshold. Otherwise, today will be another warm one with high temperatures above normal areawide, especially across the eastern plains. The upper level trough will move through the central/southern Rockies tonight and push a weak cold front through our area going into Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be 3 to 10 degrees below today`s, but still above normal across central and eastern NM. Winds will trend down significantly Thursday as the stronger winds aloft associated with the upper level trough pull further north and east away from the area. The backdoor segment of the cold front will hold over east central and northeast portions of the area Thursday, with easterly upslope flow behind it bringing sufficient moisture for late day shallow buildups and perhaps some virga. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 The backdoor front across far northeast and east central NM and the higher moisture of PWATs around 0.5 to 0.6 inches behind it will make progress south and west through all of eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning. With the higher low level moisture, low clouds along with some patchy drizzle are expected across a good portion of northeast and east central NM daybreak Friday morning. The backdoor front looks to make it far enough west to seep into the Santa Fe and ABQ Metros and give a light east wind of around 5 to 12 kts around sunrise Friday morning. The backdoor front quickly mixes east and washes out during the day Friday ahead of another shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies. Temperatures across western and central NM rebound a few degrees from Thursday`s highs.Some moisture could hang on across far northeast NM near Raton Pass and possibly produce a stray shower or storm. ABL decoupling after sunset Friday will then allow the dryline across the Permian Basin in West Texas and the higher Gulf moisture ahead of it to retreat west into far southeast NM Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, another backdoor front due to a surface high on the backside of Friday`s upper level trough will move through most of eastern NM come Saturday morning. This will put the highest moisture with dewpoints in the low 50s across far southeast NM on the caprock (Curry, Roosevelt, and Lea County). During the day Saturday, a shortwave will be moving northeast into the state along the subtropical jet ahead of an upper low moving into the Pacific NW. This shortwave will bring dry low level southwest flow to western and central NM and allow the aformentioned backdoor front across eastern NM to retreat and the dryline across southeast NM advancing east towards the Texas state line. Some afternoon and early evening virga showers and resultant erratic wind gusts could be possible across the RGV and north central NM due to some mid level moisture from the upper level disturbance. Across the eastern plains, the moisture ahead of the dryline and along the backdoor front will result in the development of some late day storms. However, there is low confidence in whether these storms become strong to severe. If storms were to become strong to severe, it would probably occur in far southeast NM (eastern Chaves, Roosevelt and Lea County) since this is where the GFS and ECMWF indicate the higher moisture and instability south of the front and east of the dryline. Storms across the eastern plains gradually wane Saturday night with the outflow from these storms sending some higher moisture through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the middle RGV sunrise Sunday morning. This moisture and the dryline mixes east towards the Texas border Sunday due to increasing southwest flow ahead of the Pacific upper low moving into the Western US. There is slightly better agreement between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble on tracking the anomalously deep upper low over the Oregon/California/ Nevada region. A stray shower or storm could form along the dryline across the NM/ TX border Sunday afternoon before quickly moving east into Texas Meanwhile, dry southwest winds will increase across western and central NM resulting in critical fire weather conditions there. The upper low moves into the intermountain West Monday sending a Pacific cold front through western and central NM and cooling temperatures there. There is still moderate uncertainty to the track of the upper low with the ECMWF ensembles having a slightly more northern track compared to the southern track from the GFS ensembles, but confidence is increasing on a very windy Monday across the state with critical fire weather conditions across central and eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Southwest winds will strengthen this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 kt common at terminals by 20Z. An upper level trough will slide into the area tonight with increasing turbulence along the central mt chain. A backdoor cold front will then slide south into eastern NM with a northerly wind shift and MVFR low cig development from near KCAO to KTCC aft 09Z. Confidence is not high enough to place BKN cigs at KTCC at this time. A Pacific cold front will also enter northwest NM around sunrise with a northwest wind shift to the RGV thru late Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... Increasing southwest winds today, due in part to a deepening lee side trough, combined with a dry airmass over the region will bring critical fire weather conditions to much of eastern NM including the upper RGV. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail elsewhere, with winds below critical threshold. A weak cold front will move through overnight into Thursday and winds will trend down, limiting critical fire weather potential. A backdoor cold front will bring increased humidity to eastern NM going into Friday, while the remainder of the area remains hot, dry and unstable. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will remain across western and portions of central NM Saturday, but another backdoor front across eastern NM will hold humidity higher and bring chances for wetting storms, especially across the east central plains near the TX border. An upper level trough will approach Sunday, spreading stronger winds across the area and bringing a round of critical fire weather conditions to central and western NM. More widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday as the upper level trough passes east over the region, although the focus may shift to areas along/east of the central mountain chain. Stronger winds and a dry airmass will remain Tuesday with cyclonic flow across the region, bringing yet another round of critical fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 38 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 34 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 72 36 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 32 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 34 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 37 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 45 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 73 40 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 76 34 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 33 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 46 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 73 39 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 38 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 62 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 29 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 74 34 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 72 37 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 80 44 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 52 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 50 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 48 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 85 47 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 48 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 84 46 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 83 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 84 46 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 49 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 49 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 49 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 76 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 43 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 39 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 39 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 77 44 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 43 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 46 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 77 39 68 37 / 0 0 20 5 Raton........................... 81 37 73 36 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 82 39 75 38 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 41 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 83 47 72 43 / 0 0 20 5 Roy............................. 82 45 74 43 / 0 0 5 0 Conchas......................... 89 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 87 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 91 50 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 89 51 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 90 53 83 49 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 91 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 95 56 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 87 52 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 83 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121-123- 125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...42