001
FXUS65 KABQ 072352 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

One more day of brisk to gusty west winds, lighter than today, with
critical fire weather conditions across eastern areas Wednesday. A
pattern change evolves Wednesday night into Thursday as a cutoff low
develops over the Great Basin pulling a cold front through eastern
areas and through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the
the Albuquerque Metro bringing an gusty east wind Thursday morning.
A cooler and wetter pattern is expected over north central and
northeast NM beginning Thursday afternoon slowly expanding south and
east through Saturday. The east canyon wind across the Albuquerque
Metro looks will be reinforced Thursday evening into Friday morning
with high wind gusts possible before tapering off midday Friday. The
unsettled pattern continues into early next week with chances for
showers and storms each afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

A broad trough continues to hang out over the High Plains, keeping
windy conditions around across central and northern NM today. A jet
streak along the base of the trough will slide southward this
afternoon and evening, seeing the core of strongest winds shift from
southern CO into northern/central NM. 700 mb winds are not
particularly impressive for a High Wind event (~40kts), but
perfectly clear skies are promoting deep mixing up to nearly 14kft
which is helping to bring strong gusts down to the surface. Winds
will diminish tonight, but there is some uncertainty if the
atmosphere will decouple enough for drainage winds to develop in
river valleys. The dry airmass and clear skies suggest plummeting
lows, but opted not to issue a Freeze Warning for the San Juan River
Valley in the Northwest Plateau because the surface pressure
gradient should be just strong enough for a northwest breeze to hang
on through the night.

Tomorrow won`t be quite as windy as today or yesterday, but still
expecting the typical gusty winds along the east slopes of the
central mtn chain and its adjacent highlands. Winds turn more
northerly late in the day as a backdoor front enters from the
northeast. Initially, the airmass will be dry, but moisture
eventually funnels into eastern NM Wednesday night as winds turn
more easterly. A freeze is possible again along the San Juan river
valley Thursday morning with greater confidence than tonight because
conditions are better for valley inversion development. Freeze
headlines may be needed in future packages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

A pattern change will be underway Thursday as the leading upper low
of the eastern flank of the overall longwave trough opens up and
progresses east towards the Great Lakes and the western flank of the
longwave trough hangs back and closed off into a cutoff low over the
Great Basin near Las Vegas, NV. At the surface, a backdoor front
will be through all of eastern NM and surging through the gaps of
the central mountain chain to the Continental Divide. This will
bring a moderate to strong east canyon wind to the ABQ metro during
the Thursday morning commute with the 12Z NAM MOS and GFS MOS
guidance indicating sustained winds close to Wind Advisory criteria
(27 and 30 kts respectively) at 15Z Thursday. The east wind will
ease up a bit during the afternoon hours. The moisture behind this
backdoor front is not impressive by any means with PWATS around 0.35
to 0.5 inches. However, this moisture and upslope flow along with
CVA and lift ahead of the upper low and daytime heating will result
in the development of scattered showers and storms over the northern
mountains and adjacent highlands near the Colorado border Thursday
afternoon slowly tapering off Friday morning with the loss of
daytime heating. This convection over north central and northeast NM
along with the upper low wandering around the UT/NV/AZ region will
help to reinforce the east canyon wind across the ABQ metro Thursday
evening into Friday morning. The 12Z guidance from the GFS MOS and
NAM MOS guidance show sustained winds increasing to near Wind
Advisory criteria at 00Z Friday increasing to around 33 to 34 kts
(just under High Wind Warning criteria) at 06Z Friday. With the
upper level pattern supporting a strong east canyon wind event, wind
highlights will likely be necessary Thursday evening through Friday
morning. The east wind should gradually relax come midday Friday.

A Rex Block will be in place on Friday with an upper level high over
the Pacific NW and the upper low continuing to meander over southern
NV, southwest UT, and northwest AZ. This will put the favored
coverage of afternoon and evening shower/storm chances across
northwest and north central NM shifting towards the northeast
highlands late in the day. Can`t rule out a stray strong to severe
storm, but chances remain low due to limited moisture and
instability. On Saturday, the low starts to meander east with the
deterministic GFS still more progressive over northern NM. The ECMWF
and most ensembles are slower keeping the low over northern AZ and
the Four Corners with a weak developing downstream ridge over Texas.
Ensembles show winds veering to a southerly to southeasterly
direction with PWATs across eastern NM increasing to 0.7 to 0.8
inches. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms
across northern, central, and eastern NM Saturday afternoon and
evening, with lower chances across southwestern areas. However,
morning cloud cover across the eastern plains could limit
instability for showers and storms to develop in the afternoon.
Ensembles show the upper low gradually filling/opening up and moving
towards northeast NM and the southern high plains Sunday. PWATs
around 0.4 to 0.6 inches will still allow for some showers and
storms to develop mainly favoring north central and northeast NM
Sunday afternoon and evening. Ensembles then show another weak upper
level trough approaching the desert SW early next week keeping the
afternoon and evening shower and storm chances in the forecast.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal late this week,
slight warming back up to near normal come Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Strong west winds will once again weaken after sunset, but remain
light to moderate (12G20KT ballpark) for much of the forecast
area overnight. A dry cold front will move into the northwest
quarter of the state after 08/03Z, resulting in a wind shift to
from the west-northwest at KFMN, and briefly to from the northeast
at KGUP. Wind speeds will increase once again areawide Wednesday
during the late morning hours, continuing until around sunset. The
highest wind speeds Wednesday are forecast to be over the northeast
third of the state during the afternoon where winds aloft remain
strongest. Patchy blowing dust is possible once again Wednesday
afternoon for the northeast third including KRTN, KLVS, and KCAO
as wind gusts reach or are near 40-45 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

..WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER AREAWIDE
TODAY AND AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM TOMORROW..

Near-zero dewpoints have allowed RH to drop as low as 4% this
afternoon across eastern NM. The same locations with single digit RH
are seeing gusts to 50 mph, creating critical to extreme fire
weather conditions that will persist through the evening. Winds
diminish somewhat tomorrow, but will remain strong enough for
critical fire weather conditions to develop across eastern NM. The
Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all zones
except the Sangre de Cristo mtns and Sandia/Manzano mtns. Winds were
more the limiting factor in the Sandia/Manzano mtns whereas it was
the RH in the Sangre de Cristo mtns.

A backdoor cold front ushers in a more moist airmass Wednesday
night, bringing an end to critical fire weather conditions until at
least early next week. However, gusty east gap winds will likely
impact areas just east of the central mtn chain, including
Albuquerque, Thursday morning and particularly Friday morning.
Scattered showers and storms will favor the northern mtns late week
into the weekend. Overall precipitation amounts appear light, with
potentially up 1" as a multi-day precipitation total over the peaks
of the northern mtns. Precipitation coverage and amounts will be
lower across the southern and western portions of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34  60  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  59  23  66 /   0   0   0  20
Cuba............................  30  58  31  65 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  29  64  26  70 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  62  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  30  66  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  72  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  40  68  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  35  75  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  77  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  25  54  25  60 /   0   0   0  30
Los Alamos......................  39  61  40  63 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  38  61  37  61 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  34  56  34  57 /   0   0   0  30
Red River.......................  28  52  25  52 /   0   0   0  50
Angel Fire......................  25  53  22  52 /   0   0   0  40
Taos............................  28  61  27  63 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  34  61  32  58 /   0   0   0  30
Espanola........................  39  68  33  71 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  39  63  39  65 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  37  66  36  68 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  46  71  46  72 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  74  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  45  76  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  43  77  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  43  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  43  77  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  43  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  43  76  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  43  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  44  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  48  82  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  63  39  63 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  41  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  39  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37  69  31  69 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  37  64  36  63 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  41  69  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  71  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  50  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  33  63  33  55 /   0   0   0  20
Raton...........................  33  67  34  59 /   0   0   0  20
Springer........................  36  68  36  60 /   0   0   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  37  66  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  39  72  42  62 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  40  70  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  47  77  47  71 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  44  74  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  45  78  45  71 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  50  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  50  83  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  49  80  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  55  89  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  49  81  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  50  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201>205-210>212-
216>218-226-231>234-240.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ104-123-
125-126.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ213>215-223-
227>229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...33