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000
FXUS61 KALY 240541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
141 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring some showers to the region
into this afternoon before colder air returns for tonight behind
a strong cold front. High pressure will bring a return to dry
weather to end the week. Thursday will be on the cool side with
a warmup expected into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 140 AM EDT, clouds and rain showers are
beginning to push into the region as a positively tilted upper-
level trough and low pressure system approach from the west. The
strong cold front remains well to the north and west over
southern Ontario. Shower coverage will be greatest across areas
north and west of the Capital District which is where we
included likely and categorical pops through the overnight.
Elsewhere, spotty light rain showers are expected so kept pops
in the slight chance to chance range. The southerly breeze from
yesterday afternoon and evening will continue to wane overnight.
The clouds and showers will keep temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface low will make its nearest approach
Wednesday morning, passing over the Adirondacks and continuing
to the northeast through the day. Rain shower coverage will
likely be higher in the vicinity of the low, with more scattered
coverage elsewhere, particularly to the south and east of the
Capital District, where there may be some breaks of sun into the
afternoon. These breaks may allow for enough additional surface
heating to result in sufficient destabilization for a few
rumbles of thunder within any convective rain shower, although
confidence in any occurrences of thunder remains low.

Precipitation will taper from west to east through the
afternoon, although it may linger longer in favored upslope
areas as surface flow turns out of the west. Much of the region
will see gusts reaching 20-25 mph behind the cold frontal
passage, while the arrival of cooler air may yield some wet snow
in the highest terrain of the southern Greens and Adirondacks,
however little to no accumulation is expected.

As surface high pressure quickly builds in behind the cold
front, dry weather, clear skies, and cooler temperatures will
persist Wednesday night through Thursday night. Afternoon highs
each day may only reach the 40s in high terrain, with 50s at
lower elevations. Cold overnight lows in the upper 10s to upper
20s on Wednesday night will moderate slightly by Thursday night,
when temperatures will reach the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level ridging builds into the region Friday with sunny weather.
Highs Friday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Warm advection begins
later Friday as high pressure builds east and south.

Upper ridging builds into our region from the west Saturday through
Monday and as the upper ridge axis shifts east of our region Monday
and beyond, increasing warm advection and moisture advection will
support increasing clouds and eventually chances for showers.

Clouds and showers will gradually build into our region from the
west and north each day, with scattered showers reaching western and
northern areas Saturday as weak upper energy tries to track around
the northern periphery of the upper ridging. More clouds than sun by
Saturday afternoon and that trend will continue through Monday but
there will be some periods of sun along with increasing warm
advection to help temperatures warm each day, especially Monday.
Highs Saturday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs Sunday in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs Monday in the 70s to around 80.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis shifts well to the east and
southwest boundary layer winds increase along with low level
forcing/convergence, instability and moisture, supporting better
chances for showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, with the
warm airmass in the region and associated instability. Highs Tuesday
in the 70s with some mid 60s to around 70 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...A cold front approaching from the
north/west will move across the TAF sites from late this
morning into early afternoon. Mainly scattered -SHRA will
accompany the front. Prevailing conditions should mainly be VFR,
although a period of MVFR is possible after 12z as the front
pushes through. Highest confidence in MVFR is at KGFL, with
somewhat lower confidence at KALB/KPSF where TEMPO groups have
mention of MVFR. VFR should prevail at KPOU. Isolated -TSRA are
possible this afternoon after the cold front passes through with
a potent upper level disturbance moves across the region.
Coverage too sparse to mention in TAFs for now, but will
continue to monitor trends.

VFR conditions with clearing skies expected from late afternoon
through the end of the period as strong area of high pressure
builds in from the north/west.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 5-15 kt with some gusts to
around 20 kt through the overnight hours. Winds will shift to
the west-northwest behind the cold front by early afternoon at
10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt expected. Winds will shift to a
more northerly direction by early evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A period of rainfall is expected tonight through Wednesday and
may mix with or end as a brief period of snow across portions of
the Adirondacks and southern Greens before ending. Dry weather
then returns for Thursday and Friday with winds generally 5 to
15 mph both days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun