433
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Along with much cooler temperatures, rain will continue
through much of the day before tapering to showers for this evening
into tonight. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with
milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather
is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns
Wednesday into the latter portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is located
over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm
system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south-southwest low
level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to
moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and
heaviest rain is in a band from the eastern Catskills and mid
Hudson Valley northeast through the Capital Region, Taconics and
Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the afternoon hours,
this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting
eastward.

Temps are fairly uniform early this afternoon with values in the
mid 40s to lower 50s. With plenty of clouds/rain around and a
persistent surface S-SE wind, temps will remain steady through
the evening hours and even into tonight.

Steady rain will become more showery this evening, as the short
wave aloft moves through with the surface front still lagging
back to our west. Will continue to mention likely/categorical
PoPs through the evening. The short wave tracks east into New
England overnight, while the surface front approaches from
central NY. So scattered showers could linger through the
overnight hours. Total rainfall expected to be around 0.50-1.25"
with the greatest amounts in the Mohawk Valley and SW
Adirondacks where the S-SW low level jet intersects the higher
terrain. The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns
given dry conditions over the past several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow will shift to a more W-NW direction as zonal flow
aloft sets up on Mon. However, the slow-moving front will still
be tracking E-SE across the area during the morning to early
afternoon hours. So while there will be a drying trend through
the day, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible
along the front as it passes through. PWATs lower considerably
late in the day, as surface high pressure starts to build east
from the Great Lakes. Breaks of sunshine should occur during the
afternoon. With good mixing developing and mild temperatures
aloft, highs should reach the mid/upper 60s in the mountains to
lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night into Tue,
providing dry/tranquil conditions. With clearing skies Mon
night, lows look to be mainly in the 40s. Dry, sunny and warm
weather expected on Tue with high pressure remaining in place.
With a light NW breeze and dry low levels, highs could reach the
mid/upper 70s in most lower elevation locations.

After a dry evening, chances for showers will start to increase
overnight as a warm front associated with an eastward advancing
cyclone over the central Great Lakes quickly approaches. Will
continue mention of chance PoPs for now due to some timing
differences among the guidance. Lows will be a bit milder with
the increasing clouds, ranging from mid/upper 40s north of
Albany to mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled conditions through the long term period, as upper
level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/upper midwest,
and gradually builds eastward. Mid/upper level disturbances
ahead of the developing trough will bring several rounds of
showers and/or steady rainfall to the region during the period.

Initial disturbance tracks across the region Wednesday. Long-
term guidance suggests some respectable instability/mid level
lapse rates track across the region with this disturbance,
especially areas south of I-90. Depending on the exact track and
timing of this system, there could be strong thunderstorms,
especially areas south of I-90. Second disturbance tracks just
south of the region Thursday-Thursday night, bringing another
round of showers or steady rain. Yet another disturbance may
bring showers or steady rain for a portion of Saturday.

Temperatures will trend below normal during the period,
although initially may be above normal Wednesday with highs in
the 70s for some valley areas south/east of Albany. Otherwise,
highs mainly in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even cooler should
widespread steady rainfall occur. Lows in the 40s, with some 30s
possible across higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...A frontal system continues to impact the
region this afternoon with persistent, widespread rain
continuing to impact the four ALY terminals. Conditions are
currently MVFR at KALB/KGFL/KPSF with lowered ceiling heights
and/or restricted visibility, while KPOU is IFR.

While rain has shown some degree of lessening in spatial spread,
expectation remains for consistent precipitation to continue
for the next several hours before reducing to mere showers just
before or just after 00z. TEMPO and prevailing groups were
included to account for the continuation of MVFR conditions or a
brief worsening to IFR conditions (lowered ceilings) through
the next 6-9 hours in response to showers passing through the
terminals.

Once the rain tapers off, MVFR ceilings will generally remain
prevalent except possibly at KALB where thermal profiles showed
some drying in the low levels which could allow ceilings to rise
to VFR levels. It is possible that with the high amount of
moisture trapped in the low levels that some patchy fog could
impact the terminals during the overnight period. However, with
confidence low in this element of the forecast due to the
expectation of persistence in mostly cloudy skies and a light
breeze, maintained MVFR to IFR conditions.

Winds will remain breezy this afternoon, especially at KALB and
KPSF, with sustained speeds ranging from 8-12 kt and gusts up to
20-25 kt (KALB/KPSF). Speeds will decrease overnight, ranging
from about 2-5 kt through the remainder of the 18z TAF period.
Winds will remain primarily out of the south throughout the
period.




Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Gant