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000
FXUS61 KALY 131054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
654 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be much cooler and breezy with valley showers
and high-elevation rain/snow showers. Precipitation ends this
evening and winds relax, but another round of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms is expected Sunday. Drier and warmer weather
returns for the first half of the week, although chances for rain
increase again for the middle to end of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 6:30 AM EDT...No major changes to the previous
forecast with this update. Cold front is now tracking into
western New England and should be off to the east of our region
within the next couple hours. Behind the cold front, seeing
showers in the valleys with some wet snow mixing in across the
high terrain per latest NYS mesonet cameras. Winds also starting
to become gusty, especially across central and western NY. Winds
should continue increasing across our area through the morning
and especially this afternoon. Wind advisory remains in effect
for much of the I-90 corridor from this afternoon through
midnight tonight. More details in the previous discussion
below...

.Previous...Occluded low 980s mb surface low continues to track
north of the Great Lakes, with the corresponding upper low
situated over upstate NY. Current GOES 16 water vapor imagery
shows increasing mid-level moisture from the west due to moist
cyclonic flow wrapping around the upper low. The system`s cold
front continues to track through the region early this morning,
with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s behind the front .

Today, we will be under the upper trough and the associated
cold pool aloft. With moist cyclonic upper flow continuing
today, skies will remain mostly cloudy and there will be valley
rain showers and high-elevation rain/snow showers around through
much of the day. Coverage of precip should be highest in the
westerly favored upslope areas, and lowest in the valleys that
downslope with a westerly wind. Winds continue to increase
through this morning, but the strongest winds are expected this
afternoon. It will be cool with highs in the 30s for the terrain
and 40s for the valleys.

A strong pressure gradient between the surface low departing to
our north and high pressure to our southwest will result in
westerly winds at the top of the boundary layer increasing to
45-50 kt this afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty
as to how much of this wind will mix down to the surface with
cloudy skies and showers around, but BUFKIT profiles still
suggest the potential for winds to gust to between 45 and 50
mph with channeled flow down the Mohawk Valley through the
Capital District and into the northern Taconics and Berkshires.
Therefore, we decided to issue a wind advisory for these
aforementioned areas from mid-afternoon through midnight
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, some lingering upslope rain/snow showers are expected
in the southern Greens through the first few hours of the
overnight period, but all areas should begin to dry out by
midnight as the upper trough pulls away to the east and heights
rise aloft. Total snow accumulations up to an inch or two are
possible in the highest peaks of the southern Adirondacks and
southern Greens. It will be cooler again tonight with lows
mainly in the 30s.

Sunday and Sunday night...Sunday starts off dry, but a a sharp
warm front will be lifting northwards into our region as an area
of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Great Lakes into
western/central NY. Exactly how far north this warm front gets
remains uncertain at this time, but this will have implications
for our weather Sunday. Some showers are expected along the warm
front Sunday morning. For areas north of the warm front
(generally north of I-90), it will be cooler with more clouds
around during the day. For areas to the south that break out
into the warm sector, some breaks of sun are possible with highs
climbing well into the 60s.

Then, in the afternoon and evening, another batch of showers and
possibly some thunderstorms is expected with/ahead of the
system`s cold front. While most of the instability looks to
remain southwest of our region, if an areas in the southern
Catskills and/or Mid Hudson Valley can destabilize then some
stronger storms can`t be ruled out. Wind shear is very
impressive with the 850 mb southwesterly LLJ increasing to 50
kt in the afternoon and evening and 50-60 kt of westerly flow at
500 mb. Mid-level lapse rates will also be steep (7.5 - 8C) in
the warm sector. SPC has clipped southwestern portions of our
region with a marginal risk for severe weather, with the slight
risk area remaining further to our southwest across PA. Any
showers/storms come to and end in the evening with the cold
front tracking through our region overnight. This will help drop
lows back into the 30s for the high terrain north of Albany and
40s for the rest of the region.

Monday and Monday night, we will be in a cold advection regime
with upper trough axis centered north of our region. Aside from
a couple pop-up showers as a result of daytime heating with the
cold pool aloft, mainly dry weather is expected Monday. While
there will likely be some afternoon clouds developing due to the
cold pool aloft, highs should climb into the 60s for the
valleys and 40s to 50s for the high terrain with relatively deep
daytime mixing. It will be breezy with high pressure centered
off to our west. Monday night remains dry as the upper trough
axis moves further to our east and high pressure builds in from
the west. Winds diminish overnight, and could become calm
allowing for favorable radiational cooling conditions if the
high is able to become centered over our region. Lows will
generally be in the 30s with some low 40s in the valleys, but
could end up slightly cooler than this across the high terrain
if we do indeed see winds become calm after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair and mild conditions Tuesday through early Wednesday, with Tue
max temps potentially reaching 65-70 or even warmer across valley
areas, and upper 50s to lower/mid 60s across higher terrain. Lows
Tue night/Wed morning in the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s.

Series of systems approach from the southwest for late Wednesday
through Friday with occasional showers and cooler temperatures.
Wednesday max temps will be dependent on when showers arrive, with
current forecast indicating mid 50s to lower/mid 60s, however some
areas could be warmer if showers hold off until later in the day.
Cooler Thursday-Friday with highs mainly in the 50s, with some 40s
possible across higher terrain areas. Lows mainly in the upper 30s
to lower/mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the
day.

KPSF and other high terrain areas should trend to MVFR this
morning, mainly for Cigs, but possibly for Vsbys this afternoon
as rain showers become more numerous. Some snow may mix in this
afternoon at times as well. There is a slight chance for some
embedded IFR Cigs/Vsbys for higher terrain areas this afternoon.

For valley areas, including KGFL/KALB and KPOU, a mix of VFR
and MVFR Cigs are expected through this afternoon/evening,
with some passing rain showers/sprinkles.

Any lingering MVFR Cigs should become VFR in valley areas after
sunset, with MVFR Cigs persisting at KPSF and high terrain
areas through around 05Z/Sun. Rain/snow showers across high
terrain areas should diminish toward 05Z/Sun.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 KT with a few gusts of
15-20 KT through mid morning. Winds will then shift into the
southwest to west and increase to 8-15 KT by this afternoon,
with gusts of 25-35 KT possible, strongest at KALB and KPSF into
this evening. West winds will gradually decrease to 8-12 KT
later tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-082.
MA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL