482
FXUS61 KALY 301946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
346 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a frontal system near the region, showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the late evening hours, with some
of the storms containing heavy downpours and small hail.  Behind
this system, mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday.  Continued comfortable conditions are
expected for Friday into the weekend, although there will be a
chance for some showers at some point over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 346 PM EDT...A stalled boundary remains draped across
Upstate New York. Most of our area remains on the cooler
northeastern side of the boundary, although some parts of the
areas (including the western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Capital
Region and Schoharie County) are starting to break out in the
warmer and more humid air mass. SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE
over 1000 J/kg in CNY, although this lowers significantly
further to the east into eastern NY, as a stable air mass in
place at low levels, thanks to the marine air that has been in
place. Some areas have risen into the lower 70s, although many
spots are still in the 60s with dewpoints only in the lower 50s.
0-6 km bulk shear is about 30 to 40 kts over the area, although
the better shear is off to the east where instability is much
lower.

Radar imagery shows a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
has developed over CNY and these will continue to develop and
spread eastward for later this afternoon and into the early
evening hours. The surface boundary and wave of low pressure
moving along the front will generally stay south of most of the
area, so most of the area should stay in the more stable marine
air. Because of this, the expectation is that these storms will
weaken as they get into our area. We still anticipate some
heavier downpours, lightning and even some small hail, but gusty
winds aren`t expected due to the stable low levels. Far western
areas (western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and
the eastern Catskills) have a low-end chance for some brief
gusty winds and larger hail if they are on the edge of the more
unstable air mass, but this is still a little uncertain and more
of an isolated threat.

CAMs suggest the bulk of the thunderstorm threat will be done by
8 or 9 PM and a few showers could linger towards midnight or
so. The rest of the overnight should be drying out and starting
to clear. Temps will be falling behind the departing storm
system, with lows down into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, skies will start off mostly cloudy for much of the
area, but there should be increasing amount of sun through the
day. A weak disturbance sliding by to the north could allow for
a brief shower or sprinkle during the midday hours (mainly for
northern and eastern areas), but this looks fairly isolated. Any
shower would be brief and rather light, as both moisture and
forcing will be limited. Have sided close to the blended
guidance for highs with valley areas in the mid 60s to low 70s
and upper 50s to mid 60s in the high terrain. A few more stray
showers are possible overnight across northern areas with
another disturbance passing by, but overall, any precip looks
light and spotty and most spots will be staying dry. Lows look
to fall into upper 40s to low 50s once again with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky.

Upper level ridging will be starting to build over the area for
Thursday and Thursday night. This should allow for dry
conditions with clearing skies, especially by Thursday night.
Daytime temps look fairly warm thanks to decent mixing and a dry
air mass in place, with valley temps in the 70s. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with tranquil weather, as a mid
and upper level ridge axis is situated over NY and and the Mid
Atlantic Region. H850 temps will be running slightly above normal
based on the latest NAEFS guidance. A sfc anticyclone will be
building in from north-central Quebec.  Max temps will be running
slightly above normal, as we went close to the NBM guidance with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys and upper 50s to
mid 60s over the higher terrain. The ridge axis should hold on over
NY and New England Fri night with just some high clouds increasing.
Lows fall off into the 40s with some upper 30s over the southern
Greens.

The weekend becomes more unsettled, as a low pressure system and a
warm front approaches from the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley.
Clouds increase on Saturday with isolated to scattered showers
especially late in the day. A few thunderstorms may be possible over
the western Dacks. The max temps will trend a little cooler than
normal with more clouds than sunshine with 50s and 60s.  The
boundary becomes occluded with the weak sfc wave Saturday night and
the chances of showers increase, as a broad mid and upper level
trough sets up over central Canada/nrn Plains and the Upper Midwest.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s. The occluded front takes its time
moving over the region with the downstream ridge holding.  A chance
of showers was continued for Sunday into early Sunday night. Max
temps will continue below normal with 50s to lower 60s for highs, as
more clouds than sun prevail.  Partly cloud skies persist Sunday
night with lows mainly in the 40s again.

A brief period of fair weather is expected to open the week with a
sfc anticyclone building in from the Great Lakes Region in the wake
of the front. Temps should rise slightly above normal with west to
northwest flow aloft. The next northern stream disturbance
approaches from the Upper Plains Mon night to Tue along with its
warm front with increasing clouds with the next chance of showers
with perhaps a few thunderstorms. Temps continue slightly above
normal. For the Day 8-14 outlook for the 2nd week of May, CPC is
forecasting above normal temperatures and slightly above normal
precipitation for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z/Wed...Morning clouds have slowly begun to break up and
this has resulted or will soon result in a trend to VFR conditions
this afternoon. Thereafter, another round of showers and embedded
thunderstorms will cross the TAF sites later this afternoon into
tonight where some reductions to IFR/MVFR will be possible. Best
thunder chances are at KALB with storms expected to be in a
weakening trend when approaching KPSF/KPOU. Best thunder chances
remain south of KGFL. Precipitation tapers off later this evening
into the overnight as low-level stratus may develop at all sites
with IFR/MVFR cigs possible. Some improvement of cigs is possible
toward the end of the TAF period.

Wind will be east to southeasterly at around 10 kt through this
afternoon with a few higher gusts possible at KALB/KPSF. Wind then
becomes variable at 5 kt or less tonight through tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms last night into this morning produced
some locally heavy rainfall over the Sacandaga and Saratoga
Regions, with up to two inches in some locations. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region through
the late evening hours. Most of the activity will probably be
southern areas with this round, but enough northern areas will
see some additional rainfall again for the late day hours. The
low level flow out of the south will bring in plenty of moisture
into the region although dewpoints and PWATs will not be overly
excessive for this time of year.

Some of these showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy
downpours, which could lead to ponding of water in urban or low
lying areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period. Overall,
rainfall amounts will light enough to avoid any flooding of
main stem rivers.

Drier weather will return for Wednesday through the late week.
Although some additional showers are possible from time to time,
amounts are not expected to be excessive and no hydrologic
issues are anticipated through the late week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Frugis