264
FXUS63 KBIS 121747
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly in the
  southwest this afternoon and early evening, along with
  continued mild temperatures.

- Low temperatures tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy
  frost possible in the Turtle Mountain area.

- Near average temperatures (highs mid to upper 60s and lows
  near 40) expected this upcoming week, as well as near daily
  chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Areas of smoke continue to clear from northwest to southeast.
Although hazy skies from more elevated smoke may persist
through at least tonight. Otherwise, radar returns have begun to
enter southwestern North Dakota. That said, returns have been
diminishing as they enter the state and based on the abundance
of dry air, that is of no surprise. It`s possible a few
additional showers or even a thundershower or two could develop
this afternoon. However, confidence in any one particular
location receiving any moisture is very low.

UPDATE
Issued at 856 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Showers continue approaching western North Dakota and will
likely reach the state around noon, give or take an hour or so.
CAMs continue suggesting showers will remain light, which makes
sense considering model forecast soundings show lot of dry air
to overcome. Very little instability looks to be available this
afternoon, so while a few rumbles of thunder are not out
entirely of the question, thunderless showers look to prevail.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Overall limited updates needed this morning, yet some items
worth monitoring. The wave expected to move through the state
later today is currently producing some weak returns in Montana.
This could be a sign that perhaps isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Will continue to monitor the progression of this
wave to see if any adjustments are needed. Meanwhile smoke from
wildfires in Canada continues to push southward and is expected
to bring visibility reductions for most of the CWA this
morning, perhaps improving this afternoon. This could slightly
reduce high temperatures today, although will hold off on any
adjustments for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A weak cold front in northwest flow will continue to push across
the CWA today. This will bring a near breezy northerly wind and
slightly cooler, yet still above normal, temperatures in the
70s. This northerly wind could also bring some areas of wildfire
smoke from Canada. Currently, visibility reductions are already
being observed mainly along and north of Highway 2. HRRR smoke
doing a decent job showing this smoke progressing southward
through the morning, becoming more scattered this afternoon and
evening. Given current observations and HRRR smoke forecast placed
in smoke mention. A weak wave looks to push across the area in
northwest flow this afternoon into the early evening. This could
still be the focus of some isolated showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms, although dry conditions will help limit the
overall chance for precipitation. Instability today is fairly
limited, with the more abundant amounts coming across the
southwest. Thus kept thunder mention to just these areas. Severe
weather is not expected today given the limited amounts of
instability. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms should diminish
early in the evening. A light easterly flow looks to form at the
surface, with ridging aloft. Lingering cool air behind the
mentioned front could bring some cooler overnight lows in the
mid 30s to mid 40s. Areas across the northeast, and especially
the Turtle Mountain area, could see some patchy frost as a
result. Confidence is not high enough for any sort of highlight
at this time, although should be monitored closely.

Monday, ridging aloft flattens with zonal flow across the area.
Meanwhile a surface low lee of the northern Rockies starts to
form. The result is some warming temperatures to much of the
area, and some modest instability with some modest shear. CSU-
MLP is showing some small chances for an isolated strong storm
Monday in the west. As this low becomes more developed chances
for showers and thunderstorms should return to these areas. Thus
something to keep an eye out for Monday. Surface low then starts
moving into ND Monday night through Tuesday, with a shortwave
aloft also moving through. This will bring increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms during this time period. Lows Monday
night look to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, while Tuesday`s
highs cool into the 60s and lower 70s.

Clusters then indicate perhaps a small break in active weather
mid week as a ridge builds off the west coast. Depending how
this sets up the state could see a slightly warmer less active
zonal flow pattern, or the early week trough could linger longer
and bring closer to normal temperatures and lingering chances
for precipitation. Current forecast has near normal
temperatures, with NBM PoPs keeping in at least slight chances
for showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Clusters then
showing the next trough pattern arrives late week perhaps into
next weekend. Temperatures spreads remain large with this
pattern, although are generally favoring normal temperatures.
Precipitation chances will likely be in the forecast each day,
although the deterministic models are showing multiple
progressive waves with this pattern that could lead to breaks in
precipitation, although are hard to time this far out. Low
temperature spreads are not quite as big and overall showing
temps at lest in the 40s, limiting any frost/freeze potential
for the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Near-surface smoke that had been resulting in reduced
visibility earlier this morning has cleared over all but far
southern and eastern ND. As a result, VFR visibility has
returned to all terminals at this time in western through
central ND. Overall, VFR ceilings and visibility should now
prevail through the period. However, there are a few radar
returns entering western North Dakota. With dry air in place,
most locations will remain dry through the day. That said, a
shower or two, possibly with a rumble of thunder, are possible
over the southwest this afternoon. Otherwise, additional showers
may begin moving into northwestern ND Monday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken