Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
806
FNUS73 KBIS 131257
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Blue Grass Slick...North Dakota Game and Fish
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
757 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies this morning will see increasing clouds
through the afternoon. Expect temperatures in the mid 40s at the
time of ignition, increasing to a max temperature of around 74 in
the afternoon. Minimum relative humidities of around 30 percent
are forecast today. Winds will begin as southeasterly today at
around 5 to 10 mph through the morning, before strengthening to
around 10 to 15 mph though the afternoon. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase through the day today and overnight,
especially after 0300. Winds will become gusty overnight, with
sustained winds of around 13 to 17 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.
Likely showers and chances for thunderstorms continue to move
across the fire area Tuesday morning and afternoon. Combined with
cooler temperatures, with highs Tuesday afternoon forecast around
67, minimum relative humidities are expected to be around
56 percent. Breezy southeast winds with sustained speeds between
10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph are expected to continue
through Tuesday morning, before turning to the south through the
afternoon and evening period. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible with any shower and thunderstorm that moves across the
fire area during the forecast period.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny. Slight chance of rain showers early in
the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 17 mph shifting to the south
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (97100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6 10 23 31 24 36 35 31 31 24
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............46 52 56 60 64 67 70 72 72 73
RH..............76 63 59 51 41 37 33 31 31 31
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 8 12 13 13 13 14 15
20 FT wind gust.9 10 9 11 14 17 18 17 17 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.5 4.1 5.2 6.1 6.5 6.2
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 15 14 15 15 15 16 17 17 17
Haines index....5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..7 16 17 27 33 53 73 92 97 93
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight,
with showers becoming likely after 0300.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2300, then 2 until 0100, then 3 until
0400, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (7200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38 17 37 48 39 43 61 62 70 71 71 74
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 50 60 60 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
Temp............73 72 69 64 61 59 58 56 55 53 53 52
RH..............31 34 37 45 49 51 55 62 64 69 71 74
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..15 14 13 14 16 16 17 16 15 16 16 15
20 FT wind gust.19 19 20 20 24 25 25 25 22 22 24 22
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 4.4 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.S S SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
Transp wind spd.18 20 18 16 18 20 20 20 17 18 18 17
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..89 75 18 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely with a
chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 63 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0700, then 3 until 1000, then 2 until
1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 13 mph becoming 10 to 11 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph shifting to the west 13 to
14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........66 86 82 77
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC CHANCE S CHC S CHC
CWR.............0 30 30 60
Chc of pcpn (%).60 40 40 60
LAL.............2 3 2 2
Temp............51 55 62 63
RH..............77 69 63 62
20 FT wind......SE 13G20 S 12G18 S 9G15 S 10G15
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1400 1700 1700
Transport wind..S 15 S 20 S 16 W 14
Haines index....3 3 3 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..8 23 23 20
$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Jacob Oster
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413931.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joster@nd.gov