Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
688 FXUS64 KBMX 092013 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 313 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024 Key Messages: - Some showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon, any storms that do develop may become severe with a wind and hail risk. - Clusters of thunderstorms currently developing across East Texas will move east this afternoon and tonight, pushing into the area with greatest potential across our south-central counties. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary concern, though risks for hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity this evening through early Friday morning. This afternoon. The Mesoscale Convective Systems has largely pushed southeast into Georgia while some remaining thunderstorms are moving east across areas generally near the Interstate 85 corridor east of Interstate 65. For the rest of the area (and for this area later this afternoon), convergence aloft is resulting in some sinking air aloft while some drier air around 700 mb has moved east over the area, forming a cap aloft and allowing instability values to rebuild under partly cloudy skies. As temperatures continue to climb in the continued humid low-level airmass through the afternoon hours, instability values will struggle but still may reach the higher convective temperature needed to overcome the inhibition and result in showers to develop, which would quickly develop into thunderstorms if updrafts are strong enough. These storms would pose a damaging wind and hail risk and could affect portions of the west and central counties from mid afternoon to early evening. Otherwise, expect scattered clouds with winds from the west-southwest at 6-12 mph and high temperatures ranging from the low 80s far east to the low 90s southwest and far west. Tonight. Shortwave ridging currently over East-Central Mississippi will move east of the area by this evening as a disturbance aloft moves east toward the area. This feature is supporting the development of thunderstorm clusters across portions of Eastern Texas that will be in an environment supportive of upscale growth through time that may result in another MCS that will move east generally along the Interstate 20 corridor toward the area. Expect any storms that developed in the afternoon to continue moving east across the area ahead of the potential MCS, followed by the potential MCS late tonight through the early morning hours on Friday. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary risk, though there will be a chance for some hail and a tornado or two if boundary interactions/cell mergers occur. Some patchy fog may develop before sunrise, especially in areas that received heavy rainfall today and tonight, though development will still be conditional based upon lighter winds and decreasing clouds. Winds outside of storms will be from the west at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will be cooler, ranging from around 60 far northwest to the mid 60s south and central. Friday. A longwave trough will swing southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions during the day on Friday while broad low- amplitude ridging builds over the Southern Plains. Expect chances for lingering showers and storms to become increasingly confined to the southeastern counties through the morning with dry conditions returning areawide by mid afternoon. Look for decreasing clouds through the day with winds becoming northwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s far northwest to the mid 80s southeast. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024 A nice respite from the heat and humidity over the weekend. My see a few temperatures down into the upper 40s across the northeast counties Saturday morning, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. An active weather pattern setting up next week with several southern stream impulses moving along the Gulf Coast region. The first impulse will bring showers into Alabama on Monday. Instability will increase late Monday night and into Tuesday as the low level flow becomes southerly and surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. There could be enough instability and shear for locally strong storms, especially on Tuesday. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024 The area is experiencing a break from showers and storms from this morning with isolated showers and storms across the southeast third of the forecast area but remaining distanced between ANB and TOI. Expect scattered clouds across most of the area with winds returning from the southwest at 4-8 kts. A few showers may develop across portions of the west and central counties by mid to late afternoon due to building instability with warming temperatures and high humidity, but this chance is too low to include at any terminal. Overnight, another convective complex is forecast to move east into the area from the west, resulting in increased clouds with chances for rain and some thunderstorm activity with best chances across the southwest, expanding eastward with time through the night and into early Friday morning. Some patchy fog may develop before sunrise Friday given the recent rains across much of the area but it is conditional dependent on light winds and decreasing clouds. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected overnight, mainly along and south of I-20. Rainfall heavy at times. The rain should be exiting east Alabama by sunrise Friday. A cold front will pass through Alabama on Friday, ushering in much drier and cooler air. Min RH values on Friday 40-50 percent. No wetting rain expected over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 79 49 77 / 40 20 0 0 Anniston 64 80 51 77 / 50 30 0 0 Birmingham 64 80 54 78 / 50 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 66 82 54 80 / 70 20 0 0 Calera 64 80 54 78 / 70 30 0 0 Auburn 64 81 56 77 / 70 50 0 0 Montgomery 65 84 55 79 / 80 50 0 0 Troy 66 83 56 79 / 80 70 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....58/rose AVIATION...05