Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 252317 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery depicts rain-free conditions
and partly to mostly sunny skies across all of Deep South Texas this
afternoon. A Pacific cold front will continue to usher in a drier
airmass as it sweeps across the region through the afternoon, but
afternoon temperatures will still be above-normal this afternoon
with highs warming into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points across
the Rio Grande Plains have fallen into the 40s this afternoon, with
a gradual decrease from the low 70s into the 50s and 60s expected
across the Rio Grande Valley over the next several hours. Despite
north to northwest winds prevailing this afternoon in wake of the
frontal passage, a brief wind shift to the east along the Lower
Texas coastal counties will exist as the sea breeze moves inland.
The combination of low relative humidity, breezy northwest winds,
and warm afternoon temperatures across portions of the Northern
Ranchlands and Upper RGV will yield elevated fire weather concerns
through this evening. A Rangeland Fire Statement is in effect
through 8PM this evening for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr
counties.

Wind speeds will subside late this afternoon and evening as the
pressure gradient weakens, with speeds falling below 10 mph tonight.
Although noticeably cooler day time temperatures are not expected
with the frontal passage, overnight low temperatures tonight will
fall into the 50s and low 60s. Temperatures will be closer to
seasonal normals tomorrow with highs warming into the low to mid 80s
region wide. Winds will gradually shift from the northwest to east
through tomorrow night, generally around or below 10 mph. A similar
cool night is expected tomorrow night as low temperatures fall into
the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The long term forecast period will consist of a departing mid-upper
trough and a building H500 ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Near the surface, a surface high pressure system will
maintain its influence over the region. In terms of sensible weather
here, this pattern will yield a dry and tranquil weather pattern
with warming temperatures especially over the weekend into the early
parts of next week.

Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday (cooler near the
coast thanks to prevailing easterly winds off the Gulf Waters) with
highs in the low to mid 80s. However, 90s will begin to creep back
into our western areas on Saturday. By Sunday, a strengthened
ridge will be in place over the area with the ridge axis just to
our east. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s
(warmest west, coolest near east or near the coast). By Monday
(April 1), high temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s with
upper 90s to near 100F degrees over our western areas. It will
remain cooler near the coast with continued onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A weak cold front has moved through the region with moderate north
winds to diminish after sunset. As for flight conditions VFR
prevails at all regional airports for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A Small Craft Advisory has been reissued for the far offshore
waters (20-60 nm) east of Padre Island due to high seas/swells.
Exercise caution for the near shore waters (0-20 nm).  Gulf of
Mexico buoys 42019 and 42002 respectively reporting Significant
Wave heights of 8-10 feet at 9 seconds. These waves/swells are
from ongoing Gale conditions over the north central Gulf of
Mexico. These waves will continue to be directed towards the lower
Texas coast through Tuesday. The swell is expected to slowly
subside and possible mix out with a light to moderate north winds
spreading across the Western Gulf in wake of a weak cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             61  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               57  83  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 58  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         55  82  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  73  65  74 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  79  61  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...59-GB


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