770
FXUS64 KBRO 050837
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
337 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS over central Texas.
Daytime heating combined with the outflow drifting southward from
the MCS may lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across the Northern Ranchlands, later today. The latest CAMs
suggests that some of this activity will develop upstream and move
into portions of the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country late
this afternoon into the early evening. Will keep POPS/rain chances
north of the populated portions of the Rio Grande Valley for today
where the airmass will be more unstable. SPC has the Northern
Ranchlands in a general thunderstorm outlook for today and tonight.

Otherwise, the main event continues to be the above normal
temperatures for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Highs
today will generally range from the low to mid 90s, except for the
80s near the coast. Mostly cloudy skies this morning should become
partly sunny later this morning into the afternoon before clouds
return again for this evening. Low temperatures tonight will only
fall into the mid to upper 70s. Monday will be very warm to hot with
highs in well into the 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. No
rainfall is forecast for Monday.

Moderate seas will continue to produce a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at the local beaches today through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Heat remains the primary concern, but a positive change is
anticipated towards the end of the period. The repeated approach
and intrusion of a dryline into Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley will produce increasingly more intense daytime high
temperatures in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
Established HEAT ADVISORY criteria is likely to be met, and
exceeded, in this 72-hour period, especially within the five
easternmost counties (Hidalgo, Brooks, Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy)
of the BRO CWFA.

Fortunately, relief will arrive on Friday, and especially on
Saturday, courtesy of the Friday passage of a weak cold front from
the north. Although little to no chance of precipitation is
forecast for Friday, a better shot of widespread isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be on tap for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Light to moderate southeast winds and widespread low stratus
prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR
conditions are generally expected to continue through the next 24
hours with southeasterly winds. VFR ceilings may return at all
three aerodromes later this morning into the afternoon, with MVFR
a little more persistent at BRO and HRL. MVFR ceilings will return
again by later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail along the
lower Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions
will occur at times.

(Monday Night through Saturday)
An enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico,
followed by the Friday passage of a weak cold front, will produce
slightly adverse to adverse marine conditions along the Lower
Texas Coast through the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory will be needed to account for the breezy to
strong winds and moderate to rough seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  77  91  77 /  10  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  75  93  75 /  10  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  78  95  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  76  96  75 /  20  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  77  83  78 /  10  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  75  88  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Caceres-63
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66