979
FXUS64 KBRO 102336 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
636 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A weak cold front looks to stall over the area today, providing
slightly cooler temperatures and slight rain chances through the
short term period. A shortwave moving through the mostly zonal
flow aloft looks to provide a small amount of forcing over Deep
South Texas tonight. Combined with ample instability and low level
moisture, this could support a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms tonight, with rain chances around 20%.

The stationary front will likely remain over the area through the
period, and additional additional forcing from passing upper level
shortwaves will continue to support a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Rain chances remain around 20%
Saturday, with the best chances shifting to the northern half of the
CWA by Saturday night.

Generally light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds will
continue to advect warm, moist air to the region, although the more
northerly component will keep temperatures slightly cooler than we
have seen the past couple of days. Low temperatures tonight and
Saturday night are expected to drop into the mid to upper 70s, while
high temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to reach the upper
80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

-Warming temperatures through the week.

-Rain chances into Monday and return late week

The long term period remains on track. On Sunday, warmer
temperatures will begin to move back into the area as a warm front
continues to move north into central Texas. While we will see 90s
everywhere away from the coast, by Monday triple digits will push
back into the Rio Grande Plains. Another cold front will sag into
the region on Tuesday, but once again we will see this front stall
along the border. Wednesday into Thursday this front retreats north
as a warm front, but temperatures Tuesday through Friday should
remain generally in the 90s with a few spots along the border
reaching 100 degrees. Overnight lows will continue remain in the 70s.

Weak overrunning, a few impulses moving overhead and onshore flow
will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend and into Monday afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm risk
for Sunday. We dry out for Tuesday and much of Wednesday, but as
weak overrunning, onshore flow and a few weak impulses move
overhead, rain chances return, primarily for the northern
ranchlands Wednesday evening into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

MVFR ceilings are starting to work inland along with northeasterly
winds. IFR ceilings are possible late tonight through daybreak
Saturday morning. VFR ceilings may return in the afternoon with an
east-southeast breeze. Haze and patchy fog are expected to
persist, especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Tonight through Saturday night: Light to moderate easterly to
northeasterly winds and moderate seas are expected to continue
through the short term. A cold front will likely become stationary
over the area this evening, resulting in a slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the period. Some visibility
reductions are likely to continue through the period, thanks to a
combination of haze and fog developing along the coast, though
dense fog advisories arent likely to be needed. Otherwise,
generally favorable marine conditions are expected for the start
of the weekend.

Sunday Through Thursday...Moderate winds and seas of generally 3
to 4 feet will prevail through the forecast period. Brief periods
of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible,
mainly Sunday and Wednesday, due to elevated winds. Showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible at times through Monday, and
again midweek which could locally enhance winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               75  92  75  93 /  20  10  10  20
MCALLEN                 78  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  93  75  96 /  20  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  83  78  84 /  10  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  88  76  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...65-Irish