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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 110823
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
223 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday night...

Dry northwest flow aloft will bring mostly sunny and dry
conditions to the forecast area today. Temperatures will be 5 to 10
degrees warmer than Wednesday, mainly in the 55 to 60 degree
range. Mostly clear skies tonight will let temperatures fall into
the 30s to lower 40s.

Friday sees flow aloft turn west/southwest and increase in speed a
bit. This will help boost temperatures into the 70s Friday
afternoon. Record highs are in the lower to mid 80s except for
Livingston at 76 degrees, so just a bit high to mention at this
time. Those winds will work to the surface in the afternoon with
gusty winds (25 to 35mph) over the western foothills.

Underneath the ridge mid level moisture combined with low level
instability will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area for the afternoon/evening hours. Similar
to a Summer monsoonal pattern, convection will get started over
the mountains and drift into the adjacent plains. The convection
won`t be a wash out by any means, just be alert for those isolated
thunderstorms and move indoors if thunder is heard. Chambers


Saturday through Thursday...

A warm weekend with isolated to scattered afternoon instability
showers and a potential early to mid-week large scale system will
keep the extended forecast relatively active.

A dirty ridge will be in place over the region this weekend
allowing temperatures to warm well above normal with chances for
precipitation each afternoon and evening. As far as temperatures
go, forecast highs are in the 70s to 80 degF both days. This is
near records for some of our climate stations (see table at end of
discussion). While an upper ridge usually indicates dry and
stable weather, increased atmospheric moisture will remain present
through the weekend. This, along with a couple 100 J/kg of CAPE,
will allow for the chance of afternoon/evening instability showers
over portions of the area (15-40% chance), and maybe even a
rumble of thunder (low chance). The extent of this activity will
be minimal, but it is still something to be aware of. These warmer
temperatures and rain showers will lead to melting of snowpack
along the foothills and valleys of the mountains, which will
likely limit impacts for the potential work week system.

Turning to the potential work week system, chances for
precipitation will increase (40-90%, highest over the mountains)
later Monday through midweek as a closed low pressure system and a
Pacific NW trough interact over our area. How they interact is
key to how much precipitation we see, and this is where the
majority of the uncertainty remains. Recent trends in the GFS and
ECMWF ensembles want to phase these two disturbances together,
which would favor more precipitation over our area. Cluster
analysis shows there is still uncertainty in this phasing though.
One way to visualize this uncertainty is looking at the 72 hour
NBM precipitation spread forecast (6AM Monday - 6AM Thursday). At
this time, the 75th to 25th percentile difference is large, at a
half inch to 3/4 inch over the lower elevations and 3/4 inch to
nearly an 1 inch over the mountains. For Billings, this means the
25th to 75th percentile range is 0.17 to 0.89 inches, so
uncertainty definitely remains. As far as temperatures go, a
cooling trend is expected next week with temperatures near to
below normal (normal is mid 50s) by Tuesday. This means
precipitation type would be rain over the lower elevations, and
even foothills and mountain valleys, early in the potential event
before a rain/snow mix is favored by midweek. With all the
uncertainty that remains, it is important to continue to monitor
the forecast into the weekend.

Probability to Tie/Exceed Record Temperature (Record)

          Saturday | Sunday
Billings:     45% (80) | 60% (80)
Miles City:   60% (79) | 35% (84)
Sheridan:     70% (81) | 60% (82)
Livingston:   50% (76) | 20% (79)

Arends
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 040/075 047/074 045/076 046/066 040/051 032/043
    0/B 01/B    12/R    11/U    34/R    67/O    55/S
LVM 062 042/072 045/072 042/071 041/061 033/044 027/039
    0/B 02/T    22/R    12/R    34/R    67/S    55/S
HDN 060 037/077 043/076 043/077 044/068 039/054 030/044
    0/B 01/U    12/R    11/U    34/R    67/R    55/S
MLS 055 035/077 045/074 045/077 049/069 041/051 031/042
    0/U 00/U    10/B    11/U    22/R    35/R    54/S
4BQ 055 034/076 046/076 045/079 047/069 040/051 030/041
    0/U 00/U    00/U    10/U    12/R    35/R    44/S
BHK 053 030/073 045/074 043/077 045/068 038/051 028/040
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    22/R    35/R    44/S
SHR 058 032/075 044/074 041/075 041/064 036/051 027/040
    0/B 00/U    11/U    11/U    24/R    67/O    66/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings