915
FXUS61 KCAR 090145
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across
the Maritimes Thursday. Low pressure will track to our south
Friday while high pressure builds to our north. Low pressure
will track south of the region Saturday. An upper level trough
will remain over the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
945 pm update...Dry air remains entrenched in the Saint John
Valley where PoPs and QPF are much lower than points south. A
band of mid-level forcing is not too far south across northern
Piscataquis County towards southern Aroostook County. More
significant rainfall will occur for the next few hours in that
corridor. Some fog will accompany the low clouds in southern
zones into early Thursday morning. The trend is for the high in
Canada and drier air to build slowly southward during Thursday,
but there is probably too much remaining 850/700mb moisture to
count on much clearing anywhere.

Previous discussion...
Surface low pressure crosses the region tonight, exiting across the
Maritimes late, with a trof extending back across the forecast area.
Aloft, an upper level disturbance also crosses the region. Expect
rain tonight, tapering to showers late. The greater rain totals
through tonight will occur across central and Downeast portions of
the forecast area, with the lowest totals across northern Aroostook
county. Upper level troffing persists north of the region Thursday,
while another disturbance moving around the trof crosses the region.
Expect mostly cloudy skies with isolated/scattered showers
Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40
north, to the lower 40s Downeast. High temperatures Thursday
will range through the 50s north, with lower to mid 50s
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest guidance continues to trend drier Friday and Saturday as
high pressure builds out of Canada into the CWA. Sfc low
pressure slides off of the mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday
evening and with northeast flow over the area it looks to remain
far enuf to the south to keep the area dry overnight. Clouds
will be present acrs the region in the evening before becoming
partly cloudy after about 08z with clearing acrs the northwest
by daybreak. Min temps look to drop into the lwr 30s over the
North Woods with m/u 30s elsewhere.

Elongated upper level trough will continue to plague the region on
Friday with upr lvl cold pool possibly resulting in diurnal showers
over the area in the afternoon.

Some differences in guidance with movement of cold pool with GFS
moving it out quicker and NAM lingering it over the area into Friday
night. Either way have kept just a slight chance of showers over
Downeast until 06z before showers try to back in from NB on
easterly flow Saturday morning into the afternoon. With cool
easterly flow temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than
Friday which is already below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upr low will slowly close off near New England Saturday night
and become negatively tilted. How fast this happens and spreads
rain to the CWA still remains up in the air. Will continue with
chc pops late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. GFS
brings upper low over the waters and into NB before moving it
into the Maritimes Monday night.

CMC and EC are much quicker with the movement and subsequent
building of upr lvl ridge. Given such uncertainty in any one
solution will keep slgt chc-chc pops from Monday morning into
Tuesday. With subsequent runs may be able to keep Monday and
Monday night fairly dry but too much variability in model
solutions to go with this at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, tonight. Rain early
tonight, tapering to showers late. MVFR/IFR early Thursday,
then VFR/MVFR late. Isolated to scattered showers.
East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early tonight, becoming
northeast/north 10 to 15 knots late. Northeast/north winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night-Friday...VFR. ENE 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR, with ocnl MVFR in cigs and possible
showers. ENE 5-10kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR though may see MVFR in light
showers. NNE 5-10kts.

Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. SW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels
tonight through Thursday. However, a few wind gusts could
approach small craft advisory levels Thursday. Rain early
tonight, tapering to showers late. Isolated showers Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will be marginal over the outer waters
Thursday into Friday evening and again on Saturday morning. Seas
will range from 2 to 4 feet and may approach 5ft on Sunday and
Sunday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW/Norcross
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...MCW/Norcross/Buster
Marine...MCW/Norcross/Buster