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000
FXUS64 KCRP 142336
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
636 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The deterministic NWP model runs predict a progressive upper
pattern, with a disturbance on the West Coast and N-S ridge over
the central CONUS at the beginning of the period, and with the
upper disturbance approaching the southern Plains by the end of
the period. The bulk of the upper forcing will remain north of the
CWA during the period. Although PWAT values are expected to be
near to slightly above normal, strong CIN will preclude surface-
based convection. Elevated convection is also not expected given
the lack of upper forcing and the approximately 300 mb dry layer
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms this weekend

▶ Minor to moderate risk of heat-related through the work week

There is good model agreement with a weak cold front coming to a
halt as it extends from North Texas to the Balcones Escarpment
midday Tuesday, then retreats northward Tuesday night. There is a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms along this front but for now
stays north of South Texas, only including a silent 10% chance over
the northern Victoria Crossroads. Moisture and 850-700mb
temperatures above the 90th percentile will keep very warm and humid
conditions in place through the work week.

An amplified mid-level shortwave from northern Mexico shifts
eastward across South Texas Wednesday through Friday. There is weak
model agreement on the shortwave progression over South Texas with
the GFS and CMC passing through the day on Thursday, while the ECMWF
lags behind and weakens it as it pushes through late Friday. Decided
to keep a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms over the
Brush Country on Thursday.

Unfortunately, agreement has not been consistent from run to run as
discrepancies become more apparent through the weekend. Both the
ECMWF and CMC depict an amplified mid-level trough over the Midwest
CONUS pushing a relatively strong cold front through South Texas
Sunday morning; whereas the GFS has a more zonal mid-level pattern
and a very weak cold front pushing through Sunday night. All in all,
there will be copious moisture with PWATs near 99th percentile along
with a nearby front and a series of mid-level shortwaves. This
combination will lead to low chance (20%) of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, increasing to a medium chance (30-50%)
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions along with gusty winds to 25-30 knots will continue
this evening before decreasing down to more moderate levels
tonight. Unfortunately, as the winds decrease, ceilings are also
expected to lower leading to MVFR conditions late tonight into
tomorrow morning. By 12-15z, sites will slowly begin to improve to
VFR and winds will once again increase to around 20 knots
sustained with gusts to 30-35 knots. Due to the strong winds at
the surface, low level wind shear is not expected to be issue
during this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Issued a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the southern bays until
01z Monday (per the NAM, lowest approximately 500ft becomes less
than dry adiabatic by 00z Monday). Strong onshore flow is
expected Monday afternoon/evening over at least the southern
bays/nearshore waters, as an upper level disturbance moves across
the southern Rockies, yet will defer to the mid shift to issue the
SCA. Onshore flow will diminish to weak to moderate through the
day Tuesday but seas will remain elevated over 6 feet through
Tuesday morning. Seas subside below Small Craft Advisory criteria
by Tuesday afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist
through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday
and increase through the weekend as a cold front approaches the
waters combined with well above normal moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  71  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          83  69  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            94  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             89  69  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          81  70  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           94  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        86  70  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  72  81  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...JCP/84