Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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463 FXUS61 KCTP 010241 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1041 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Showers give way to clearing skies and some patchy fog tonight -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity Wednesday-Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with rain likely Sat/Sun && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THe only lingering showers are across the Lower Susquehanna Valley as of 10PM with all lightning activity now over. Showers will move east of the forecast area by midnight with a dry night expected areawide. Clearing skies are working their way into western PA as the cirrus deck associated with today`s weather system continues to pull north and east of the region. Light winds and clear skies will result in some patchy fog overnight thanks to a moisture- rich airmass with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Best chance for fog appears to be in the Laurel Highlands into Clearfield County where dewpoint depressions are the smallest and clearing will be most durable. Also can`t rule out some valley fog in the deepest valleys of the northern tier that have the best chance of decoupling, but the influx of drier air and lower dewpoints may be a limiting factor. Lows by Wednesday morning will range from the the middle 40s in northwest PA to near 60 in the southeast where clouds will be slow to clear overnight. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest guidance continues to indicate warm/dry conditions through midweek with a trend toward unsettled weather into the weekend. Highs on Wednesday in the middle 70s to near 80 are +10 to +15 compared to average and Thursday will a few degrees warmer for much of the Commonwealth. Dry air entrainment/mixing heights combined with mostly sunny skies and mean westerly flow all signal to cut dewpoints and raise temps by a few degrees in-kind for both afternoons. The sfc pattern by Friday begins to take on a cold air damming configuration as high pressure channels down the eastside of the Appalachians. Can`t rule out a late-day PM shower or t-storm across the western Alleghenies with POPs increasing from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. Cloud trends and southeast flow could result in a considerable west/east temp gradient with max temp spread between 80-65F across central PA. Further adjustments to Friday high temp fcst likely over the next few cycles. This setup could also favor low clouds and fog into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into AM Sat. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure tracking north of PA into the Canadian Maritimes will likely result in a developing easterly flow and the onset of cooler conditions Friday PM into the weekend. All medium range guidance points to a rainy and cool weekend, especially the first half, as a southerly low level jet linked to an upper trough over the Great Lakes and an associated plume of deep moisture overruns a stationary front over the Ohio Valley. Latest EPS plumes indicate around a half inch of rain is likely by late Sunday. Passage of the upper trough and associated occluded front appears likely to bring drier and warmer conditions by Monday of next week. A warm front arriving Tuesday could signal a return of clouds and showers/tstorms to the region. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front is crossing central PA this evening, accompanied by scattered rain showers. There is an outside chc of a thunderstorm through mid-evening across the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS). Lingering showers could persist through the early overnight hours across the Lower Susq Valley, with drying elsewhere. There could be some reduced cigs over the western highlands (BFD, JST) this evening, but skies are expected to gradually clear after that. As skies clear from west to east and winds diminish overnight, we will have to watch for fog formation during the pre-dawn hours. Expect quick improvement areawide Wed morning, as any lingering fog dissipates and leaves mostly sunny skies with a W/NW sfc breeze of 5-10 kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri AM...No sig wx expected. Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/ reductions possible. Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures were set at the following locations on Monday: SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956) Bradford 82F 76F (1984) Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974) It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year, almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May 11th). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banghoff NEAR TERM...Banghoff SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...Evanego CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert