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000
FXUS63 KDDC 152202
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms 7 PM - Midnight. Some storms
  severe with large hail and damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- Intense northwest winds and blowing dust Tuesday.

- Two cold fronts are expected, one on Thursday and another on
  Saturday, bringing much cooler air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dust may begin to reduce visibility slightly Today with the
persistent strong gusty winds. A dust advisory is in effect for
most of northwest Kansas. The RAP-Chem experimental model for
surface dust concentration focuses all of hat higher pockets of
dust sourcing in the eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. Some
areas of our forecast area bear watching though especially
along the Colorado line out on highway 400, for potentially
adding to the dust advisory.

For this evening, the sever potential is enhanced with any
developing storms as the 3km NAM/HRRR model hodographs indicate
rather elongated sickle hodographs beginning around 6-7 pm,
largely favorable for hail , but becoming strongly curved with
time in the lowest 2 km heading into the mid and late evening,
more supportive of wind and tornadoes.

Confidence is high on supercell impacts during this early
evening to late evening timeframe, At the same time the
confidence is good with respect to area of initiation. Several
members of the HREF ensembles agree on storms developing along
the eastward sweeping cold front by mid evening, with an average
starting point near Meade and Gray counties, lifting east
northeast thereafter and exiting the northeasternmost counties
(Hays to Stafford and Pratt), around midnight to 1 am.

Following the severe weather risks, winds should taper down
through the overnight with winds decoupling from the surface,
but over the winds begin mixing post sunrise Tuesday, strong
gusts to 40-50 mph will be common, with sustained winds in the
westernmost counties seeing sustained winds possible to the high
wind criterion of 40 mph and gust to 60 mph. These very strong
northwesterly winds will create a serious risk for any north and
south traveling vehicles , especially high profile vehicles. A
high wind warning has replaced the high wind watch for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ensemble members of the EC/GFS show essentially a dry forecast
through at least the weekend, and even those member means on the
weekend are sparse in number and light in qpf (only a few
hundredths of rain).

Wednesday night will bring a cold front that will limit the
rest of the week and weekend largely to highs in the 50s, with
lows in the 30s in the latter half of the week.

The week 2 outlook has high confidence (60-70%) in temperatures
leaning above average for late April, while to a lesser degree
(about 35 %) confidence in leaning above average rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas generally
after 01-03Z this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of
KHYS and possibly KDDC. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions are
forecast throughout the period. Gusty south-southwest winds through
late evening are expected to turn more westerly around 15 to 30kt
generally after 04-06Z as a cold front pushes east through western
Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds now gusting to above 30 mph as the clouds slowly clear
from west to east, and 15% relative humidity has been achieved
west of a Liberal to Garden City and Scott City line. Several
more hours for the criteria to spread eastward behind and
advancing dryline. The red flag warning remain in place for this
afternoon all the way east to the highway 283 corridor

Winds will be intense on Tuesday, beginning mid morning and
lasting through the afternoon. Blowing dusts and rapid fire
spread will still push the risk into the elevated to
significant categories despite the temperature and dew point
profiles probably keeping temperatures well out of the red flag
criteria zone (15% RH for 3 hours or more).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Turner/Russell