Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 140702
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly
drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong
mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the
Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western
CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central
Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will
slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low
humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated
fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow
aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains.
The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over
northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee
trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of
15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into
west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee
trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH
minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few
hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized
fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO.
However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty
winds more localized.

..Lyons.. 04/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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