Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281704 AAB
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1104 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Warming temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be the
theme through the weekend. Areas of blowing dust will be likely on
Friday and Sunday due to the elevated winds. The approaching
system that will bring these winds will bring moisture and
increased precipitation chances Sunday into Monday. Cooler
temperatures expected for the beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. Warming
temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be the name of the
game for the Borderland region through the weekend.
Upper level ridging will quickly build in from the west on Thursday.
This means quiet and dry weather conditions, along with warming
temperatures. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the
middle to upper 70s across the desert lowlands, near 80 for El Paso
and vicinity.
Southwesterly flow aloft will return on Friday as the next storm
lurks off the coast of California. Pressure at the surface will
respond to increasing cyclonic curvature and positive vorticity
advection aloft with lee-side surface cyclogenesis formation over
the Front Range of southeast Colorado, with an accompanying surface
trough across New Mexico. This will promote breezy to windy
conditions on Friday and Saturday. NBM 75th percentile (verified
well over the past few weeks with recent wind storms)
probabilities are showing winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40
mph during the Friday afternoon/evening timeframe with a very
similar solution for Saturday. Winds as of now look to remain sub-
advisory. However, it will still be windy which could ultimately
promote blowing dust and the subsequent impacts from that.
As the storm system moves onshore during the Sunday timeframe, windy
conditions will remain in place across the region. The global
ensembles and their respected suites and deterministic solutions
remain bearish, so we will continue to watch this trend as we head
into the weekend. As of now, Wind Advisory headlines will likely be
needed for Sunday. Moisture and rain chances will also increase
during the Sunday-Monday timeframe as the system digs along
International Border of California/Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High (90%+) confidence in VFR conditions across the Borderland
prevailing over the next 24 hours. As a ridge of high pressure
aloft flattens and moves eastward, high cloud coverage trends
upward to mainly SCT250. SW winds pick up and become gusty after
15-16Z on Friday, in response to lee troughing developing over SE
CO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW to ELEVATED through the weekend
predominately for the desert lowlands of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas.
Fire weather conditions will be LOW to low-end ELEVATED on Thursday.
Ridging with with slight southwesterly flow aloft will return to the
region. Min RHs will become Critical for all the desert lowlands and
Gila/Sacramento Mtn foothills Thursday afternoons. Elevations above
7000 feet will see Min RHs between 16-25 percent. Winds will be low-
end breezy out of the south/southwest at 7-15 mph.
For Friday, ELEVATED fire weather conditions return to the area.
Southwesterly flow in combination with strengthening lee-side
surface low formation over the Front Range of SE Colorado with lead
to increasing surface and low-level winds. As of now, confidence is
high that winds will be above Critical Thresholds on Friday. Min RH
values will be at Critical Thresholds as well, with values of 8-15
percent across the desert lowlands and Gila/Sacramento Mtn valleys
and foothills. Elevations above 6500-7000 feet will see Min RH
values of 15-20 percent and 20-30 percent for the highest
elevations. Given the sensible meteorological conditions
overlaying marginally receptive desert shrub/grass-like fuels,
ELEVATED to near- CRITICAL fire weather conditions will exist for
the desert lowlands. For the highest elevations, areas above
8000-9000 feet, fire weather conditions are LOW. Sensible
meteorological conditions, like gusty winds and decreasing Min RH
values will be present. However, given the state of larger fuels
like our Ponderosa Pine and Douglas/White fir, along with PJ and
woodland oak, fire weather conditions will be LOW to low-end
ELEVATED.
ELEVATED fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend
for the desert lowlands.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 80 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 74 47 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 77 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 73 52 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 50 39 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 72 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 66 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 75 46 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 74 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 78 56 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 78 43 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 81 47 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 72 51 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 81 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 76 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 76 56 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 74 48 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 76 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 76 51 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 74 51 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 64 45 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 61 44 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 61 40 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 66 41 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 71 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 72 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 66 38 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 69 42 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 72 43 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 68 43 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 68 45 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 77 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 77 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 78 48 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 71 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99/ABQ