629
FXUS64 KEWX 060849
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
349 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Light streamer showers are seen near and south of San Antonio early
this morning. This activity should spread north into Central TX
later this morning with a small chance of one or two breaking the
cap this afternoon. PWat values should hover near or above 1.5
inches and there should be plenty of low level wind to support the
roll cloud pattern in the lower portion of the conveyor belt of the
upper low moving into the central/northern Plains states. The mostly
cloudy day should help hold temperatures close to seasonal values,
but above normal temperatures are expected near the Rio Grande where
some downsloping plateau air mixes into the area. The transition to
more stable air is more complete by this evening as a more dry zonal
pattern develops over TX. The surface pressure gradient should
weaken tonight and this could allow for a more stable fog pattern
which could become dense in areas where good rains fell. Tuesday,
the weaker pressure gradient and an eastward mixing of the dry-line
will bring much more sunshine into the area and a significant uptick
in daytime heating. The San Antonio area should get the first taste
of mid 90s heat so far this year, but lower maxes are still expected
over the rain-soaked soils around Austin. High RH values Tuesday
could send the Heat Index soaring, and a few areas could see near
advisory level values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mid and upper level high pressure off the coast of the western U.S.
along with low pressure over the Intermountain West will yield a Rex
block pattern as we head into the middle portion of this week. Across
our region, west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist in the mid
and upper levels of the atmosphere. In the lower levels, the thermal
ridge remains strong and this combined with warm air off the Mexican
plateau will result in continued above normal temperatures on
Wednesday. Most areas will see highs in the 90s along with humid
conditions. Temperatures will be hotter (100-105) across the Rio
Grande plains as the dryline mixes eastward during the afternoon
hours. We will need to monitor areas along and east of I-35 for a few
spots briefly approaching Heat Advisory levels with the heat index
near 108 degrees. Some convergence along the dryline and perhaps some
weak upper support may allow for some afternoon convection to
develop over the Hill Country into north Texas. For now, rain chances
appear favored to our north, so we will keep the forecast dry. On
Thursday, a cold front will move southward through the region, with
the GFS trending a little stronger with the cooler air behind this
front. The most notable cooling will occur across the Hill Country
and I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward. Farther west into the
Rio Grande plains, another round of hot temperatures in the 100-105
degree range will remain in the forecast. We could see a few showers
or storms develop behind along and behind the front and will keep a
low chance for precipitation in the forecast for the Hill Country and
nearby I-35 corridor. The cooling trend continues for Friday and
Saturday along with a low chance for showers and storms initially
confined to the Rio Grande on Friday. An upper level jet moves across
north Texas on Saturday into Sunday and this may help spread low
rain chances farther east into the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and
coastal plains. Highs for Friday through the upcoming weekend will
generally range from the upper 70s to upper 80s along with lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Short-term model trends seem to favor some streamer showers or
drizzle on either side of daybreak, with maybe some sprinkles
continuing into the early afternoon. Will focus on the daybreak
period for lowest CIGs and VSBYS, with VCSH to show a hint. When we
get closer to daybreak, we`ll make a commitment to either a tempo or
prevailing group depending on the character of the radar returns we
expect to see. A decent LLJ is depicted on VAD wind profiles and in
the mid cloud layers on satellite imagery, so will hold with mainly
IFR CIGs close to daybreak and expect any dips into LIFR or worse
categories to be short-lived and localized. Much of the day we`ll see
the conveyor belt of focused low level moisture over Central TX as a
large upper low ejects NE out of the Central Rockies into the
plains. Thus will hang onto the MVFR daytime cigs for an hour or two
longer than what was indicated in earlier TAFs. The low level moist
layer never really gets a chance to mix out today, so a return to
MVFR skies should occur over I-35 sometime in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  73  91  72 /  30  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  72  92  72 /  30  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  72  93  73 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            83  70  89  71 /  30  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  74 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  71  90  71 /  30  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             88  71  94  71 /  20   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  71  92  71 /  30  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  74  90  73 /  20  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  73  93  73 /  30  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           87  73  94  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18