904
FXUS63 KFGF 110903
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
403 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is expected today across much of
  the region as RH values fall into the 20 to 30 percent range
  along with wind gusts up to 25 mph.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon for portions of northwest Minnesota. A few storms
  could produce strong wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Weak shortwave ridging traverses the region today, with a strong
response in temperatures this afternoon. Look for highs in the low
80s across much of the area; there is a 30% chance to reach 85
degrees in the northern Red River Valley. With low dew points
already in place, this will create a scenario for very low RH values
as low as 20 percent. Winds will not be as strong as yesterday;
however, we could still see a few gusts to 25 mph.

For the late afternoon and into the overnight period, shortwave
troughing moves progressively from northwest to southeast in
response to an H5 upper low moving across northern Manitoba. This
should provide an axis of instability and forcing starting late this
afternoon across portions of northwest Minnesota. Soundings indicate
an environment somewhat supportive of strong wind gusts where high
based thunderstorms are able to form. While SBCAPE looks to be
minimal, MUCAPE supports elevated thunderstorm development and will
be in the range of 800-1200 J/Kg. DCAPE is quite high as is expected
with the very dry air mass at the surface, and soundings show a
range of 900-1500 J/Kg. As such, any strong storm that develops
would most likely produce strong wind gusts, with lower chances for
hail.

Heading into Sunday and Monday, impact potential looks minimal in as
ridging builds into the Northern Plains. Highs will be in the 70s on
Sunday, with 60s to low 70s Monday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, another H5 low pressure system brings
rain chances back into the area. Guidance has hinted at a deeper low
in the past several runs, which could slow the system and increase
the potential for higher rainfall amounts. Currently, amounts look
rather light, with a 70 percent chance for 0.10 inch and a 30
percent chance for 0.50 inch for the period covering late Tuesday
through early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The 00z set of TAFs remain on target, so stuck with the main
ideas from them. Light winds overnight will take on a SSW
component by mid Saturday morning, then get pretty breezy again
by afternoon (mainly KDVL/KGFK/KTVF). These winds will drop
again by early Saturday evening. Clouds may be a little tricky.
Have stuck with the idea of FEW-SCT250 for overnight into
Saturday morning. By afternoon, there should be some lower or
mid cloud development (SCT-BKN070-100), but still VFR. Then
during the later afternoon into the evening, expect some SCT
shower maybe isolated thunder development. Being this far out,
it is still a low confidence forecast, so left as VCSH at some
of the northern TAF sites for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Godon