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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241000
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 AM MST Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler and windy conditions today will give way
to cooler and unsettled conditions for the second half of the week.
Chance for showers arrive Thursday and again by late Friday and into
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An approaching area of low pressure will make for
another windy day today, with a few more degrees of cooling as hghts
continue to fall. Most areas will stay under Wind Advisory criteria
and headlines will not be needed. The upper low then moves across
northern Arizona on Thursday, with enough cool air aloft to generate
scattered mid-level convection. Winds will also drop off a bit as
pressure gradients aloft relax. Any QPF derived from this pattern
will be light, due a a deep and dry sub-cloud layer.

Wet-bulbing could result in a few snow flakes falling at the higher
elevations, even with temperatures in the lower 50s, but don`t worry
about it.

Brief zonal flow will dry us out into early Friday, before a colder
upper low and well-defined cold front moves into the area from the
north Friday afternoon through Saturday. This will ramp winds up
again, with some eastern zones possibly tipping into criteria Friday
afternoon and Saturday. Dynamical forcing and cold air aloft will
make for a more efficient saturation profile for the second system
and many areas will see enough rainfall, or wet snowfall, to soak
the ground.

Following this, higher hghts and dry, zonal flow brings warmer
conditions/lighter winds back to the region Sunday and into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 24/06Z through Thursday 25/06Z...VFR
expected to continue with SSW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35
kts. Winds become lighter 5-15 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 25/06Z through Saturday 27/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Localized MVFR in SCT/ISO -SHRA/-SHSN and
ISO TS 09Z/Thu-03Z/Fri. SSW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts,
becoming lighter during the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry and mild today, before
cooler temperatures and chances for light rain showers and possibly
some thunderstorms set in on Thursday. Wetting rain is unlikely.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting 25-35 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Cooler temperatures remain through Saturday,
before rebounding on Sunday. Rain and high-elevation snow showers
develop late Friday into Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will also
be possible. Southwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph Friday,
becoming west 20-25 mph over the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff