984
FXUS64 KFWD 291731
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/

Thick morning fog and low clouds continue to erode this afternoon
with sustained heating. While visibilities have improved across
the region, there are still some pockets of thicker low cloud
cover. Until these erode this afternoon, temperatures will be 5-10
degrees cooler beneath the clouds. Otherwise, most areas will see
sunny skies by mid afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s.

While we could see some additional fog develop later tonight,
southerly winds 5-10 mph may keep the boundary layer sufficiently
mixed to inhibit dense fog. Weak shortwave ridging will persist
across the Southern Plains through Tuesday and should keep things
relatively quiet across North Texas, but southerly winds will pull
moisture northward and a dryline will sharpen to our west. Latest
model guidance does suggest that our ridging will pass to the east
late in the day and weak ascent will overspread the Plains. The
GFS is particularly bullish on thunderstorm development along the
dryline late tomorrow afternoon, but it does have some support
from the hi-res guidance. For now, we`ll keep PoPs at 20% and
continue to monitor. Any storms that develop might be able to
spread into our western counties during the late evening.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the previous forecast, therefore,
the discussion below remains valid. Another foggy early morning
is expected east of I-35 Tuesday night into sunrise Wednesday.

Periodic rain chances will continue through much of the week with
the greatest rain potential arriving on Thursday. Strong to
severe storms will be possible, but timing/location remain
uncertain at this time.

Rain chances will continue through the weekend, however, a
complete washout is not expected. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Low clouds and fog have generally eroded across the region,
although some IFR cigs still persist to the south and southeast of
the D10 airspace. VFR should prevail through the period with light
and variable winds becoming southerly later this evening. While we
could have some visibility reductions early Tuesday morning, we`ll
keep things at 5SM BR for now. South winds will increase to 10-15
kt on Tuesday with VFR prevailing outside of morning fog.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  64  87  70  83 /   0   0   0   5  20
Waco                83  62  84  69  82 /   0   0   0   5  30
Paris               80  60  83  64  83 /   5   0   0   0  30
Denton              79  61  86  68  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
McKinney            79  61  84  68  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
Dallas              83  63  86  69  84 /   0   0   0   5  20
Terrell             78  61  84  67  82 /   0   0   0   5  30
Corsicana           79  64  86  69  84 /   0   0   0   0  30
Temple              82  62  85  70  83 /   0   0   5   5  30
Mineral Wells       83  62  88  68  83 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$