National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGID 151153
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhance risk for severe weather this evening/tonight (Level 3
  out of 5). Supercell and QLCS severe thunderstorms possible.
  All forms of severe weather possible: Golf ball sized hail,
  wind gusts to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes.

- Strong southeast winds (gusts to 45 MPH) today through this
  evening. Strong northwest winds (gusts to 45 MPH) Tuesday
  afternoon into Tuesday night.

- Continued good chance for rain/thunderstorm on Tuesday
  (60-80%). Another storm system brings showers/thunderstorms
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning (50-80%).

- Cooler Thursday into the weekend with off and on small chances
  (20-30%) for rain. Sub-freezing low temperatures are likely,
  especially Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today into Tonight (Severe Weather Threat)...

A large upper level trough will track across the Colorado
Rockies today and into the High Plains tonight. Warm moist Gulf
air will stream northward ahead of this system with dew points
easily into the upper 50s and possibly even into the lower 60s
by early evening. A strong cap will be in place over the warm
sector through much of the afternoon and early evening so that
much of the day should be dry.

However, as the upper system ejects into the High Plains late
this evening, height falls/cooling aloft will allow at least
scattered thunderstorms to overcome the cap and spread north
northeast into our forecast area. We could initially see a few
very isolated thunderstorms overcome the cap between 6-8 PM CDT,
but most forecast models hold off the more widespread
thunderstorm development until after 10 PM when there is pretty
good model agreement in convective initiation over central to
north central Kansas. These thunderstorms would then race north
northeast into south central Nebraska around or a bit after
midnight. The best chance for supercells will be with any of
that more uncertain initial isolated thunderstorm activity
around dusk. The later evening and overnight storms may have
more of a QLCS flavor with fast moving bowing line segments.
Although severe thunderstorms will be possible about anytime
between 6 PM and 6 AM, the most likely window for more
widespread severe thunderstorms will be from 10PM-3AM.

There is good model agreement in MLCAPE values of over 2000 J/KG
this evening with values remaining over 1000 J/KG through dawn
Tuesday morning. In addition, deep layer 0-6 km shear values
should be between 30-50 kts through the period with strong 0-1
km low level shear this evening of also over 30kts. Large hail
to around the size of golf balls will be the most likely severe
weather threat. However, all modes of severe weather will be
possible including a few isolated night time tornadoes along
with straight line wind threats. Eventually as we near dawn
most of these thunderstorms will have exited our forecast area
to the northeast.


Tuesday (Showers/Thunderstorms and Wind)...

The upper level low is expected to track across central Nebraska
during the day on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures aloft with the
upper low could set the stage for additional scattered
thunderstorms along with wrap around rain bands as the system
pulls away Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Can not rule out
some small hail and gusty winds with Tuesday thunderstorms, but
the greater severe threat on Tuesday should be well east of our
forecast area across Iowa. Strong northwesterly winds will
increase through the afternoon and evening as the upper low
slides east of our forecast area.


Wednesday through Thursday...

Another upper trough will quickly swing south out of Canada
behind the departing storm system. This will bring an another
chance (50-80%) for precipitation mainly Wednesday night,
although there will be less moisture to work with so amounts
will likely be around 0.25 inches on average, but a few spots
could see up to 0.50 inches. Although we are forecasting all
rain at this time, can not rule out a few wet snowflakes
up around Ord around dawn on Thursday. The cooler air will work
in behind this mid- week trough so that highs will only be in
the upper 40s to around 50s by Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...

Overall cooler weather will settle in with mainly just a few
slight chances for rain. Highs in the 50s will continue with
several frosty mornings likely. Saturday night looks like the
coldest night at this point with what could be a widespread
freeze across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

We continue to expect high clouds will begin to increase
through the day today, with scattered low clouds developing by
late afternoon. Eventually by this evening we should see low
clouds increase with MVFR ceilings at times, probably around
sunset or shortly after sunset. I think we will avoid
thunderstorms through most of the day, but expect increasing
chances for thunderstorms late this evening after sunset and
especially after 9 or 10 PM. Severe weather is definitely a
concern this evening through tonight. In addition, southeasterly
winds will be gusty throughout the TAF period and could gust to
over 45 mph by this afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

TODAY:
Cancelled the Fire Weather Watch for today.

Although there is still some uncertainty on how far east the
dry line will push today, it does appear most likely that the
dry line will remain west of our forecast area during the
daytime hours. The HRRR model has been the most aggressive with
an eastward push of the dry line while the NAM and NAM NEST have
consistently kept the dry line well west of our forecast area.
The most recent 06Z HRRR is now trending further west with the
dry line keeping RH values higher across even our western most
zones. Therefore, in collaboration with neighboring offices to
our southwest, we have cancelled the fire weather watch for
today. Please note that a Red Flag Warning does remain in effect
west of our forecast area across western Kansas behind the dry
line.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 723 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Despite the recent well-above normal warmth that will continue
into early this week, all daily temperature records have remained
"safe" so far at Grand Island/Hastings airports (the two
stations for which we issue formal Record Event Reports/RERs).
However, it still appears we have a chance of at least
approaching the existing record warm low/minimum temperature
for Tuesday (April 16th).

- RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS AND LATEST FORECAST (Tues April 16th):

GRAND ISLAND
Current record:   54 (2006)
Current forecast: 52 at 11:59 PM Tues night

HASTINGS
Current record:   57 (2016)
Current forecast: 52 at 11:59 PM Tues night

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch/Wesely