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000
FXUS65 KGJT 202346
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
546 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain showers, and a few storms, will come to an end this
  evening giving way to a pleasant Sunday.

- Temperatures will continue to warm day by day next week with
  breezy afternoon winds expected each day as well.

- A few weak embedded waves in the flow could trigger an
  isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm through Wednesday.

- Bigger changes look to arrive by late in the week with wetter
  and cooler conditions moving in through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The models really nailed it with regards to the last little wave
moving through the area. Overnight, Vail Pass received between 1
to 2 inches of snow that quickly melted off once the sun came
up. Daytime heating, favorable orographics, and weakening upper
air support aloft all lent themselves to allow some stronger
cells to form this afternoon. Currently, radar is showing these
cells in a line from just north of Vail down through Carbondale
and the Grand Mesa. Some brief heavy rain and gusty winds (30 to
45 mph) can be expected under and near the stronger cells. A
few rumbles of thunder also can`t be ruled out. Speaking of, a
few cloud- to-ground lightning strikes were detected just north
of Pagosa Springs over the last hour so, yes, there`s enough
instability to allow a few of those rumbles. The good news, if
you want to call it that, is all hi-res models, SREF, and
probabilistic guidance are showing a downturn in activity around
6PM with just about all precip done by 9PM minus a stray shower
over the highest mountain peaks.

Surface height rises indicate ridging building in for Sunday
which promises to be a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and
warmer than average high temps. Afternoon wind gusts are
expected to be less than seen lately as well. Nice.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A flattened ridge draped across the CWA will continue to
transport weak moisture across the region during the early part
of next week. This will likely just result in cloud cover
Monday with a few isolated orographic showers possible over the
mountains. Upper level winds will continue to mix down to the
surface on Monday with gusts 25-30 mph expected again
Monday afternoon. The ridge axis slides overhead by Tuesday
afternoon, with  an embedded shortwave or two rippling through,
increasing chances for more mountain showers during the
afternoon. Winds aloft are slightly less on Tuesday, but some
mixing will still find us in the breezy afternoon pattern we`ve
come to expect this spring. Temperatures will also inch upward
through midweek under the influence of the overhead ridge.
Through Wednesday, some of our desert valleys and lower
elevations of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado will see 80+
degree afternoon highs enter the picture again. Temperatures
will trend 10-15 degrees above climatology during this warmup.
Height falls Wednesday see the return of a stronger
southwesterly jet streak out in front of a low digging down the
West Coast. This will drive up winds and usher in, yet more, dry
and warm air Wednesday afternoon ahead of the approaching
trough. The trough swings through on Thursday and delivers
another round of scattered showers to the mountains. Moisture
still looks pretty meager at this point and will likely just
yield clouds and maybe trace amounts of  rain to the dry
valleys, whereas the mountains could see a few wetting showers
in spots Thursday afternoon. A brief transitory ridge between
waves passes Thursday night before another push of unsettled
conditions Friday afternoon and Saturday. This should lead to
another round of gusty southwest winds ahead of the next frontal
boundary. Late week temperatures will trend downward toward
climatology thanks to precipitation and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Late day warming working in concert with a weak mid-level
disturbance continued to generate virga and light showers over
the region late this afternoon. There`s little chance this
activity will dampen the runways of TAF sites before diminishing
early this evening as cooling brings atmospheric stability.
Thereafter, skies will be clearing and winds will decrease and
shift to a light drainage flow late this evening and overnight.
Few clouds are expected Sunday with light upvalley/upslope
winds during the afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...NL