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000
FXUS65 KGJT 192100
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
300 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and snow showers tonight for the mountains.
  Accumulations will favor the northern mountains, with mostly
  just a dusting of snow up to 3 inches on favorable aspects.

- Breezy and cloudy following a weak frontal passage on
  Saturday, with more rain and snow showers on the mountains.
  Little to no accumulation expected.

- Unsettled conditions continue through the first half of the
  week, with weak precipitation chances in the forecast. A more
  substantial storm is looking possible towards the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weak trough pushing across the Great Basin this afternoon is
sending a diluted plume of moisture onto the West Slope. A few
isolated showers are finding their way to the ground in the
mountains, but dry air at the surface is eating up much of the
moisture before it can have any measurable effect this afternoon.
Winds have picked up again from the west-southwest and are gusting
around 20 to 30 mph, with elevation playing a direct correlation to
wind speeds. The main trough passage will push through during the
overnight hours tonight, with a few snow showers likely at the
higher elevations above 8-9k feet. Accumulations are expected to be
minimal with moisture in short supply. Cloud cover will keep
overnight lows tonight just above climatology. Winds will shift more
northwesterly behind the trough on Saturday and with moisture
hanging around will likely spark a few showers across much of the
high country. These showers will stick to rain, except at the higher
elevations, with gusty outflows expected under virga showers in the
valleys. Winds will remain breezy on Saturday afternoon and cloud
cover will take some of the comfort out of an otherwise mild spring
day. It won`t be a total wash though, as valleys can expect some
holes in cloud cover to break up the gray a bit. Winds settle
towards evening and skies are expected to clear as the remaining
moisture gets scoured out by the dry air spilling over the front of
the building ridge. Overnight lows will take a dip Sunday morning
with clear skies. A few cold basins will drop into the uppers teens
and lower 20`s, while the warmer spots will trend about 5 degrees
colder than Saturday morning.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A slightly tilted ridge axis will be overhead Sunday as a trough
moves along the Canadian/US border. This trough will continue to
shift the ridge axis eastward while also flattening said ridge. Any
precip associated with this feature will stay well to our north
until possibly Monday afternoon. Sunday will be a warm and sunny day
with a few more clouds along the UT/CO border and that`ll be about
it. A weak cold front will drop down from the trough and bring some
showers and storms to the Front Range with a small chance  (20 to
40%) for some light precip over the higher terrain along the
Continental Divide Monday. Daytime heating will aid in destabilizing
the atmosphere and thus, the slight chance for a quick storm to form
Monday afternoon. We shall see. Ridging starts to build back in
Tuesday but another weak wiggle in the flow will allow some isolated
showers to fire along the Divide. Limited moisture and upper level
support will keep QPF amounts to less than .1 inch so nothing
significant. Wednesday will be an in between day as the next
shortwave trough sets its sights on the CWA. Guidance is suggesting
some light precip possible across the area Thursday morning through
early Friday morning. A more potent system will be waiting in the
wings Friday onwards but plenty of time to nail down those specifics.

High temps will continue to run warm as readings 10 to 15 degrees
above more seasonal values will be common. The usual gusty afternoon
winds of 20 to 25 mph are also expected each afternoon next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Broken skies over the mountains with more scattered skies
elsewhere will be the rule today. Cigs will get close to ILS
breakpoints at KASE and KEGE, if not a bit below from time to
time, but anticipate conditions to remain above for the majority
of this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will remain in
places across the entire CWA, however. Southwest through
westerly winds will occur today with some gusts reaching 20 to
25kts this afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT