000
FXUS63 KGLD 152345
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning and Blowing Dust Advisory remain in effect
  for much of the area today in assoc/w strong southerly winds.

- Thunderstorms will rapidly develop east of Highway 83 a few
  hours after sunset this evening (~10-11 pm CDT). A few severe
  storms capable of producing all hazards are possible late this
  evening into tonight, mainly east of Highway 83 between 10 pm
  and 1 am CDT. Storms will rapidly track E and NE of Highway
  283 thereafter.

- High Winds expected on Tuesday. Northwest winds sustained at
  30 to 45 mph may gust up to 65 mph during the day on Tuesday.
  Wind of this magnitude will create dangerous travel
  conditions, especially for high profile vehicles. Reductions
  in visibility associated with blowing dust (where present)
  will locally exacerbate already dangerous travel conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Latest satellite imagery shows a clear sky over the forecast
area. However just to the east cumulus clouds are beginning to
form east of the dry line which runs south from McCook to
Oberlin and Hoxie. Thunderstorms may begin to form north of the
forecast area along the dry line. However that threat should
remain north of the forecast area until late evening.

Red flag warning continues to verify for the southwest half of
the forecast area. The higher dew points near the dry line to
the east are preventing the RH from falling as much as it is the
west.

The blowing dust threat should gradually diminish through the
afternoon. There have been some reports of reduced visibility in
the blowing dust down to a mile or so. Do not foresee this
becoming any worse. The winds will decline during the early
evening as they turn to the west.

Focus then shifts to tonight for the severe weather. Latest data
continues to increase confidence of rapidly intensifying storms
forming over Graham/Norton counties before midnight. Soundings
indicate the storms should be surface based along the dry line,
which will increase the threat for tornadoes to form. The CAPE
profile and shear are very supportive of large hail or even
giant hail. Storms that develop will be moving north at 40 MPH
or so. Storm should begin around 10 PM CT.

The severe threat should shift east of Norton/Graham counties by
3 AM CT as the dry line moves east of these counties. However
this will likely happen sooner due.

Before sunrise Tuesday the cold front will move through. This
should be signaled by winds turning to the west. Behind the
front winds will turn to the northwest and increase. By Tuesday
morning wind gusts around 60 MPH are expected. The peak wind
gusts will occur during the early afternoon. The winds will
decline during the latter half of the afternoon as the upper
level trough shifts east of the forecast area.

In addition to the increasing winds, rainfall should move into
the forecast area from the northwest. The latest forecast is
less optimistic than from last night, thus lowering confidence
that much of the forecast area will receive rainfall. At this
time, Yuma County area has the best chance for rainfall. Lift
declines to the east and south of Yuma County.

Along with the high winds will be blowing dust. What complicates
this is rainfall. wherever there is enough rain to wet the
ground there should be little to no blowing dust. Elsewhere
blowing dust should occur. Looking at the GFS, which is the
model of choice for blowing dust, the most favorable area for
blowing dust will be generally south of I-70. This is where
lapse rates are the most favorable and where there is the least
chance for rainfall. To the north the lapse rates become less
favorable for blowing dust, along with rain happening at some
point.

Regarding the high wind potential decided to upgrade all but
three counties. Am not sure at this time how far east the high
winds will extend from CO. Used probability for gusts of 60 MPH,
along with looking at the 75th and 90th percentiles to
determine where high winds would be the most likely to occur.
The strongest winds will be over East Central CO. Strongest
winds in general will be during the early afternoon on Tuesday.
Tuesday evening the winds will lighten as the upper level trough
shifts to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The area is under west-northwesterly flow aloft at the start of the
long term period as shortwave ridging is present overhead. The low
pressure system which is bringing active weather to the region at
the start of the work week becomes centered over IA/MN/WI within a
slightly negatively tilted trough. Another low centered over
Saskatchewan extends a trough into the northwest CONUS. Low pressure
develops in the lee of the Rockies, subsequently skirting eastward
south of the area Wednesday night-Thursday morning. A front pushing
south will allow precipitation chances (~30-70%, highest north) to
develop; can`t completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder with
this activity as well. Winds become breezy out of the north post-
front, gradually tapering off Thursday afternoon.

Shortwaves and sufficient low level moisture provided by easterly
flow will continue off and on precipitation chances (highest chances
will be Friday night into Saturday at ~50-70%), or at least
increased cloud cover, through much of the long term period. With
these showers and the cooler temperatures, expecting snow to mix in
at times across western portions of the area, with minimal, if any,
accumulation expected. In terms of QPF, currently expecting from a
few hundredths of an inch up to around two tenths of an inch with
locally higher amounts possible.

Temperatures on Wednesday continue above normal (in the 70s to low
80s) before dipping below normal, generally in the 50s Thursday and
Friday, in the 40s Saturday, followed by a warming trend with upper
level ridging working eastward late in the period. Low temperatures
will also be nearer to the freezing mark until the latter part of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

..Hazardous Aviation Conditions assoc/w Strong Winds..

Strong (30-40 knot) southerly winds at both terminals will
weaken and shift to the SW and W this evening.. earliest at GLD.
Winds will shift to the WNW-NW and increase to 25-35 knots with
gusts to 40-50 knots after sunrise Tuesday morning.. earliest
at GLD (~13-15Z) followed by MCK (~16-18Z). Reductions in
visibility assoc/w blowing dust are possible at both terminals
throughout the day on Tue.. accompanied (perhaps) by showers at
the MCK terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ013-027-041-042.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for KSZ001-028.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ090>092.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079-080.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for NEZ079>081.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Vincent