633
FXUS64 KHGX 290834
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dangerous flash flooding is ongoing across portions of the region
as training showers and thunderstorms slowly sag southward across
the region. With a swath of 5-7" rain and localized 10+ across
northern parts, rivers are on the rise...some forecast into moderate
flood stage. Even though rain will be ending, water will be slow
to recede and the reminder to not drive thru flooded roadways
stands.

The stronger llvl jet that has been feeding deep Gulf moisture
into the line is in the process of shifting to the east. Expect
the cold pool to eventually push the majority of ongoing convection
off the coast and to the ese as we head into the sunrise hours. In
the meantime, southern parts of the CWA should anticipate some
isolated strong-severe storms and locally heavy rain. Will
maintain Flood Watch as is into mid morning for messaging
purposes. Though the metro area itself is not within the Watch,
this does not mean there will not be some isolated impacts...in
fact - one can probably expect a few issues (localized street
flooding, etc). HRRR, which has done an excellent job with this
event, still shows the potential for some small pockets of 2-5"
totals along/south of a Cleveland-Angleton line.

The boundary pushes offshore this morning with clearing/fair wx
emerging in its wake by the mid morning and afternoon hours.
Pressures fall the the west, and southeast winds will resume and
drive it, and associated deeper Gulf moisture back into the area
Tuesday. Will probably see some sct shra/tstm development across
sw/s parts of the CWA during the day into early evening.  47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A continued challenging and somewhat unsettled fcst for the extended.
Some subtle mid level ridging will nudge the trajectory of a series
of upper level impulses in the emerging sw flow aloft to favor
the northern half of the region. Can`t pinpoint any single disturbance
or timeframe, but combination of those plus 1.7-2.0" PW`s, daytime
heating, and seabreeze should keep chances of shra/tstms in the
fcst pretty much on a daily basis during the second half of the
work week and the weekend. More concerning is the potential for
another weak frontal boundary to sag into the region around Friday
and potentially stall. Regardless, soils across several parts of
the area will be saturated and prone to quicker runoff with any
additional moderate-heavy rain that decides to develop. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Storms are now sagging into the metro terminals and should push
off the coast not long after sunrise. Lingering IFR conditions
should gradually improve during the mid-late morning and afternoon
hours back into VFR territory. Look for some fog to develop across
parts of the region later tonight.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Small craft advisories and high risk of rips will continue today. Strong
to severe cells are in the process of approaching the coast and
should be moving offshore during the early and mid morning hours.
Look for strong winds and variable directions along with chaotic
seas as this occurs. A long fetch of southeast winds has been in
place for several days and although winds will generally be lower
into midweek, seas should remain on the elevated side for a good
portion of the week. Periods of unsettled weather are possible,
though better shower and thunderstorm chances should be situated a
bit further inland.  47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Rivers will be on the rise...some well into moderate flood
territory as heavy rain continues to runoff into area watersheds.
Additional chances of rain are in the forecast throughout a good
part of the week. General trajectories of the upper level
disturbances into mid-late week appear to be over the same
locations we saw overnight. Nothing screams anywhere as extreme as
what we are experiencing, though any additional heavy rain over
saturated soils will quickly runoff and cause further river responses
that`ll need to be monitored with time. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  67  84  71 /   0   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  86  69  85  71 /  20   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  71  79  73 /  80  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ164-177>179-
     198>200.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
     375.

&&

$$