203
FXUS63 KICT 070422
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1122 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather this afternoon through the evening.

- A long stretch of fairly quiet weather expected later tonight
  through at least early weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread clouds has so far hampered destabilization across the
eastern half of KS. However, the airmass should quickly destabilize
by mid to late afternoon from the west, as rich boundary layer
moisture advects northward, with some breaks in low overcast likely
generally west of the Flint Hills. Given steep mid-level lapse rates
and mid-level cooling spreading eastward, this will all yield strong
buoyancy moving in by mid-late afternoon (likely upwards of 2500-
3000 J/kg). The rich low-level moisture will also yield high amounts
of buoyancy in the lower levels, an essential ingredient for
tornadoes. Deep layer effective shear will also continue to
increase, as a strong mid-upper level speed max approaches from the
southwest. Low-level shear is also impressive, with 0-1km SRH
increasing to 300-400 m2/s2 by late afternoon-early evening as the
low-level jet increases. This thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will favor supercells and embedded supercell structures
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop/continue moving east-northeast up and down the dryline from
western KS, south through western OK, as large-scale ascent
continues to overspread the dryline. Given the stronger forcing and
deep layer shear orientation more parallel to the dryline, activity
should tend to form more of a line/broken line of storms with
northward extent, likely limiting higher-end severe threat from
roughly central KS on north. However, given the above mentioned
environment, embedded supercell structures are likely within the
line/broken line, capable of all severe hazards, including a few
tornadoes.

Further south across mainly southern KS and points southward through
Oklahoma, the environment looks to become increasingly volatile for a
more discrete supercell mode with southward extent, given somewhat
weaker large-scale forcing, and deep layer shear orientation more
perpendicular to the dryline. This region is also closer to the
emerging intense mid-upper jet streak. It is in this region where
ingredients should come together for some intense supercells,
capable of very large hail and damaging winds, along with the threat
for a handful of strong & long-track tornadoes. This higher-end
threat is most probable between roughly 4-10pm, and again from
southern KS, south through Oklahoma.

As we head into the evening hours, most CAM solutions congeal much
of this activity into a line/broken line of intense thunderstorms
from OK north-northeast through eastern KS. While the overall threat
for higher-end severe weather should tend to wane with this
activity, pockets of intense supercell structures and meso vortices
are likely given the continued strong low-level shear and low-level
buoyancy. This activity will pose a continued tornado threat, along
with intense pockets of damaging winds and large hail.

Please heed all warnings and take shelter when appropriate. Any
tornadoes that develop this afternoon and evening will likely be
difficult to see given low cloud bases, along with the potential for
rain-wrapped circulations. Do not wait until you can see the
tornado. If a tornado warning is issued for your location, please
take shelter.

Once tonight`s thunderstorm activity clears to the east, the
synoptic pattern favors relatively quiet weather through at least
early in the weekend. Chances for showers/thunderstorms may increase
Sunday-Sunday night into next week, but it appears the potential for
organized severe weather is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
the next few hours at KCNU but after 08Z, VFR conditions will
return to all areas of the region. Winds will calm down
significantly as well. No aviation weather impacts are expected
after 08Z.



&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM