160
FXUS63 KICT 081128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a few elevated strong/severe storms early this
  morning across far southeast Kansas

- Dry and quiet weather to prevail for this afternoon into the
weekend

- Showers and storms possible for Sunday into early next week,
  severe weather not expected

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Current conditions show strong low-level jet and associated moisture
transport surging north and over-running the northward moving
surface warm front over southern Oklahoma. This 925-850mb layer
moisture surge will continue to race north of surface warm front and
encounter a elevated 700mb baroclinic zone where air parcels become
more vertically forced. This should spark off elevated convection
over southeast Kansas/western Missouri. Cloud bearing wind
shear/elevated instability is supportive of large hail this morning.
The window for storms over southeast Kansas looks shorter lived with
better chances longer duration in western Missouri. Large hail will
be the main severe weather hazard. Meanwhile the higher dewpoints
from advancing surface warm front look to make a brief appearance in
far southeast Kansas later this morning then shift eastward into
Missouri as a cold front slides southeast. The timing of surface
based storms initiating along the front looks like it will affect
locations east of southeast Kansas.

Quiet weather conditions will prevail for this afternoon and
continue into the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the
region ushering in drier low-level air. Models show a upper level
system slowly ejecting from the Rockies eastward into
Kansas/Oklahoma for Sunday into early next week. This could bring
some scattered rain showers/storms to the area. Strong to severe
storms look unlikely this period given weaker flow aloft and low
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A weak cold front has shifted winds to the northwest for all but
far southeast Kansas. Ahead of this front we may see some
showers and storms in far southeast KS this morning but the
activity may remain just south and east of KCNU. A VCTS was
introduced in the 12-15z timeframe where we could see a period
of MVFR cigs along and behind the frontal boundary. The
afternoon redevelopment of showers and storms is expected to
remain south and east of our TAF sites with VFR prevailing
across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM