Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 270557
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
157 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will give way to a storm system
tonight and Wednesday with a stronger storm developing offshore
Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in behind the cold
front Thursday night with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track at the moment. Warm front
is still south of the area, as it is struggling to move through
Charleston and Berkeley Counties. This front, while it will
eventually move through the area, has been slow in its
progression, which will delay the start of the rain. Looks like
parts of Marion County may have recorded a few hundredths of an
inch a few hours ago, but overall, the local atmosphere is too
dry for rain to fall right now. Latest radar trends from KCAE
and KCLX prove this idea. This will require careful monitoring
over the next several hours.

Elsewhere, updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A large amplitude trough will be progressing towards the area
through tonight. A bit of shortwave energy looks to move through
aloft around midnight tonight along with a surface warm front. This
will kick off the increasing rain chances through the period, albeit
with spotty shower coverage and measurable rainfall totals sticking
primarily inland. PWATs by Wed morning will be 1-1.5" becoming 1.5-
2" through the afternoon. Rain chances will generally increase from
west to east as conditions become more favorable. Some hi res
guidance is suggesting we could see a lull in activity during Wed
AM, which could lead to some renewed instability later in the
afternoon. Forcing really starts to ramp up towards the end of the
period as another shortwave moves overhead. Kept thunder chances low
but not nonexistent, particularly for later in the day Wed. Rainfall
totals for this time period are looking to be near 1" inland and a
third of an inch near the coast.

Lows tonight in the mid-upper 50s, some spots near 60, for NE SC.
Low-mid 50s for SE NC. Highs Wed in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
All elements remain in place for a significant rain
event for late Wednesday into the day Thursday. The elements are as
follows, a stalled front in the area north to south, higher
precipitable water values for this time of year, and deep coupled at
times upward motion. A good part of the guidance has been somewhat
consistent on this scenario for days. The heavy rain should occur
between 06 and 12 UTC Thursday and a bit more focused along the
coast. Storm total qpf amounts...should finalize between 2-3 inches.
Although at first glance these amounts are not overwhelming heavier
rainfall along the coast a few days ago and the fact the more
concentrated activity will be a few hours in and around morning rush
hour may be problematic. A Flash Flood Watch will be considered with
the overnight shift. Friday should see clear skies and slightly
cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not a lot of activity with the extended forecast as the
mid level pattern will be westerly with an eventual transition to
subtle ridging. It takes a long lens to see the next chance of rain
almost at the end of the period from a system approaching from the
west. As would be expected with dry conditions and moreso a ridge
building temperatures rise above climatology in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to open the 06Z TAF period, for now. Warm front is still
well to the south of all the terminals, and the atmosphere
appears to be too dry for rain to fall at the moment. Even so,
low-end VFR ceilings are aplenty out there, and it won`t be long
until MVFR starts becoming more widespread. Think the best
chance for MVFR ceilings tonight will be across KFLO, KLBT,
KCRE, and KMYR, where ceilings are closest to crossing into that
threshold right now. Some of this depends on the progression of
the aforementioned warm front, which is moving pretty slow at
the moment. MVFR may not actually fully take over until after
sunrise Wednesday morning. From there, MVFR conditions should
then generally prevail Wednesday with increasing rain chances
(and possibly some thunder), with pockets of IFR or worse
conditions, especially inland in heavier rainfall. Thunder
chances level off a bit more after sunset Wednesday evening, but
IFR looks to be the main trend inland, and will be knocking on
the door at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely into Thursday
with increasing rain chances. Forecast dries out Thursday night
and high pressure returns throughout the weekend, allowing for
widespread VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Seas primarily 3-5 ft with E to SE flow 10-15
kts through the period. Rain and thunder chances will start to
increase Wed AM, particularly during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night through Sunday... Small craft advisory
conditions are possible later Thursday in the wake of a system
moving off to the northeast. By Friday a west to southwest flow
will develop and more or less be in place through the weekend.
The flow may increase sufficiently to warrant another headline
later Saturday. Significant seas will be driven by the local
winds for the most part and 4-6 feet or so is possible with the
headlines and 2-4 feet otherwise.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/LEW


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