473
FXUS61 KILN 271049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pivot north through the region offering a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly this morning. Warmer
temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected for the
remainder of the weekend. A chance for showers and storms will
return Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches and moves
through the region. After a brief dry period of weather at mid
week, an active wet period of weather will develop later
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Amplified mid level flow with negatively tilted shortwave
lifting from the Upper MS Valley across the western Great Lakes
today. H8 45-50 kt southerly jet to pivot thru the Great Lakes
this morning offering some favorable forcing and low level
moisture advection. This will offer the threat for isold/scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the best coverage across west
central Ohio early.

Warm front to pivot north early - placing the entire ILN forecast
area in the warm sector. After the early morning activity any
forcing will be very limited. Any isolated convective activity
that does develop looks to be closer to the stronger
mid level flow, across the far northwest.

Pressure gradient increases and with a well mixed boundary
layer southerly winds will gust up to 30-35 mph.

In warm advection pattern temperatures to rise to highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge builds north into the southern Great Lakes for
the end of the weekend. Can not rule out an isold shower or
thunderstorm across the far northwest this evening - otherwise
expect dry conditions overnight. Southerly winds stay up around
10 mph with mild lows generally in the lower 60s.

Firmly established in the warm sector Sunday - with a lack of
forcing do not expect widespread pcpn. Temperatures to warm to
highs generally in the lower 80s. These readings are 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mean H5 ridge axis begins to shift east of us Sunday night as a
shortwave barrels through the Central Plains region. Another
seasonably warm day expected on Monday underneath this ridge, but we
will begin to observe an increase in clouds and eventually a notable
increase in PoPs with the approaching shortwave. This shortwave
feature and associated cold front will be fairly progressive as it
swings through Monday night into the early part of Tuesday. This
will limit the QPF footprint across our CWA, but 0.25" - 0.5" still
plausible.

Temperatures slightly moderate on Tuesday, but highs are only a few
degrees cooler given the weak cold frontal boundary. Some rain
showers may linger into the early part of Tuesday before shifting
eastward. By Wednesday, weak ridging will build back in over the
Midwest, promoting drier conditions at the surface. However, warm
and relatively humid conditions will be observed, which will
continue into Thursday.

Model uncertainty grows as we near the end of the work week. There
is some resemblance of a shortwave trough that will influence the
weather pattern across the Ohio Valley. This will increases chances
for precip, but will have to see how model guidance trends over the
next few runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The tail of a southerly low level jet will pivot thru the area
this morning offering some favorable forcing and a period of
low level wind shear. The best coverage of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm to remain northwest of the TAF sites. Have handled
this threat with a mention of VCSH at the northern TAF sites.

Warm front to pivot well north of the area into the Great LAkes
today with the TAF sites in the warm sector today. Mid level
ceilings this morning will decrease in coverage some this
afternoon with generally high level ceilings into the overnight
hours.

Additional shower or thunderstorm development is expected to
remain north of the TAF sites today. Another period of low level
wind shear is expected overnight after 06Z.

Southerly surface winds around 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts at
times today and then up to 20 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR