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000
FXUS63 KIWX 131850
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
250 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather this evening through much of Sunday. Falling
  temperatures lakeside Sunday.

- Unseasonably mild through Wednesday with highs in the 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms litter the forecast Tuesday through
 Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tranquil weather this evening through much of Sunday with high
pressure currently centered over the Southeast US. A low is noted
over far southern Manitoba, whose cold front may serve as the focus
for a thunderstorm or two late Sunday afternoon. This will be
preceded by tumbling temperatures Lakeside while those inland bask
in mid-to-uppers 70s warmth all afternoon. The marginal risk of
severe weather has been removed by the SPC this afternoon; a fair
move given sparse coverage and a cap near 850mb. Upper-level forcing
is well removed from the modest cold front such that the cold front
is really the only trigger. If they occur, the thunderstorm risk is
maximized from about 5pm to 8pm EDT.

Rising heights aloft and warm air advection bring temperatures right
back to the 70s on Monday all the way through Wednesday. A surface
low emerges from the Rockies resulting in a notable severe weather
risk for the Central and Southern Plains on Monday. Eventually, this
low and severe weather risk reaches Illinois and western Indiana by
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will come and go through
Thursday night. There with be plenty of wind shear around
through Wednesday while instability varies. Lingering clouds and
showers could limit any severe weather risk for Wednesday.

Cooler on Thursday behind a cold front, but even colder air pushes
in Friday as a shortwave streaks in from the Canadian Rockies.
Temperatures at 850mb next weekend fall toward -8C; brrrr! Frost
will likely be a concern by Friday night and/or Saturday night,
following a rapid accumulation of Growing Degree Days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Remaining VFR and dry through the period with winds the primary
focus. Northwest winds could still gust up to near 20 knots at
times, mainly at KFWA, this afternoon before weak ridging
briefly works in late afternoon and evening with backing/lighter
winds. Return southwest flow then ramps up overnight into Sun AM
in advance of a weak cold front with LLWS expected.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Steinwedel