Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221839
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

High pressure will build in tonight and remain in place across the
area through the end of the week. The result will be dry
conditions and moderating temperatures. Areas of fog and low
stratus will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly
across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan. Warm and humid
conditions are expected for the holiday weekend with highs in the
80s. There is a low chance for a shower or storm each day, though
expectations are for most locations to remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Scattered showers/storms will remain possible near the Lima OH
area through 20/21z. A weak surface trough and 1000-15000 j/kg of
MLCAPE trailing a low/mid level circulation moving through MI is
providing the forcing. Storms should remain below severe limits.
Dry otherwise/elsewhere for the remainder of the afternoon, with
post-frontal marine layer/inversion resulting in much cooler
temps and low stratus across nw IN/sw MI.

Large scale subsidence/height rises in wake of this afternoon`s
system will allow high pressure to build in tonight into Wednesday.
This will provide dry conditions, light winds, and seasonable
temps. The main forecast challenge will be potential renewed
fog/stratus development overnight into Wednesday morning,
especially across nw IN/sw MI where winds will go calm overnight
and temps likely fall well below xover values. Bumped up sky cover
and fog probabilities given these trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

An upper level ridge will fold over the Great Lakes region Thursday
into Friday promoting dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
Humidity/instability will be on the increase with the local area
situated between a developing Deep South/TN Valley upper low and
Upper Midwest/Northern Lakes frontal system as upper ridge breaks
down. This will bring non-zero (10-30%) chances for mainly diurnally
driven shower/storms back into the forecast near potential
outflow/lake/differential heating boundaries as instability builds.
Weak flow/forcing should preclude much of a severe risk with
storms more pulsy/isolated at best. Best chances for storms does
appear to be north of US 24 Saturday afternoon as forcing on the
southern fringe of a Central/Northern Great Lakes shortwave
possibly clips the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Expect gradually improving conditions at the TAF sites through early
evening as a cold front continues eastward across northern Indiana
and Northwest Ohio. Northwest winds behind this front will diminish
to light and variable overnight, and skies are expected to clear out-
which makes another fog scenario possible late tonight/early
Wednesday morning. For now, have medium confidence in conditions
deteriorating from VFR to MVFR after 2z at KSBN and 08z at KFWA,
and then to IFR after 9/10z at both sites. Expect improvement to
VFR by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD


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