Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 181833
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 727 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

A heat advisory remains in effect through today with highs rising
to between 90 and 95 and heat indices to around 100. Isolated
showers and storms are possible late today near the Michigan
border. Somewhat cooler air will spread into the area for the rest
of the week and be accompanied by periodic chances for showers
and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018


The fcst area remains under a heat advisory through this evening
as temperatures have climbed through the 80s early this aftn.
Expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 90s with heat
indices over 100 most places. Convection that was occurring to the
north across MI this morning has dissipated with some
redevelopment along and north of I90. HiRes models point to
scattered convection across the northern half of the area then
dissipating after 03-04Z. There should be a lull overnight and
then another round of thunderstorms Tue aftn. CAPE values are well
above 2000 this aftn and is expected for Tue. Precip water values
have been 1.5 to 1.75 today are fcst to rise to around 2 inches
by Tue. The frontal boundary oriented e-w just to our north today
will sink southward overnight and be situ across U.S. 30 by Tue
aftn where the precip focus should be for tmrw into tmrw night. A
marginal risk for svr exists into tonight with isolated damaging
wind being the primary threat. With the boundary shifting
southward the threat area focuses on the southern third of the
fcst area Tue for both rainfall and isolated damaging wind.

Since the HiRes models do not keep thunderstorms ongoing through
the night...do not think flooding will be an issue in the near
term even if individual storms are efficient rainfall producers.
However will mention in the weather story the potential for heavy
rains Tue aftn.

&&

LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 108 PM EDT
Mon Jun 18 2018

AN upper low over the northern Rockies will translate into the
central plains during the midweek period reaching Illinois by
Friday. The low will meander as upper level ridging blocks
eastward movement of the low. As the ridge flattens the low lifts
newd into the Gtlks by the weekend. Ahead of this...our weather
pattern will remain unsettled with chances for precipitation most
days except Wed night/Thu. Temperatures are expected to be more
seasonal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the
week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals today as high pressure
lingers over the area, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible
overnight within any heavier showers or storms. Expect a chance
for showers and storms later this evening and overnight at KSBN
as a frontal boundary draws near, with winds becoming more west-
northwest. Showers and storms are possible late tonight into
Tuesday morning at KFWA as the front sinks southeastward. Gusty
southwest winds at KFWA this afternoon will die down and become
more variable overnight. Confidence in the exact timing/location
of thunderstorms is low.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077>081.

OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/Skipper
SHORT TERM...MF
LONG TERM...MF
AVIATION...MCD


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