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000
FXUS63 KIWX 150711
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
311 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remaining very mild through Wednesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times Tuesday through
  at least Thursday.

- Notably cooler by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A "cold" front is moving in quickly as of this writing. Observations
behind the cold front indicate little to no change in air
temperature behind this front; a result of poor CAA aloft. Cumulus
clouds are developing along the front, but 15-degree dew point
depressions will largely prevent any precipitation from reaching the
ground. Furthermore, cumulus has been shallow thus far today.
Forecast soundings depict a dry profile with steep low-level lapse
rates and unidirectional shear. This front could still spark a
thunderstorm or two, primarily near or southeast of Fort Wayne.
Confidence is low due to the modest nature of the cold front,
disjointed upper-level support and in return, few to no storm
coverage within CAMs. Generally discounting the wavering marginal
severe weather outlook that once again clips the forecast area
(Lima, OH).

Remaining unseasonably mild through Wednesday as ridging aloft
quickly resumes. A trough moving onshore of the West Coast today
eventually spawns a low in the Lee of the Rockies Monday night and
Tuesday. Thus, showers and thunderstorms enter our forecast Tuesday
and persist through at least Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are
favored on Tuesday over Illinois, and some of this activity could
cross into Indiana Tuesday night. Well ahead of the cold front
forecast soundings suggest a marginal severe weather threat, with
instability being the main limitation. Showers and storms along the
cold front don`t enter the forecast area until early Wednesday
morning when plenty of wind shear persists along with ample lapse
rates. While the overnight timing is not ideal for severe weather
locally, thunderstorms appear likely in this environment. The
marginal risk by SPC is welcomed. Thunderstorms can produce heavy
rain, which may renew flood concerns especially where river levels
are elevated. Through Saturday, forecast rainfall is near 0.75" to
1".

This low moves into Ontario by Thursday, likely pushing the pause
button on POPs (especially in the morning). However, a shortwave
arrives soon after bringing more rain and a dose of unseasonably
cool air. As a result, unlike current conditions, expect cool
temperatures next weekend with the risk of frost for some.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A quiet aviation weather period is in store with VFR conditions
persisting through the period. Sheared upper vort max tracking
across the eastern Great Lakes will continue to take sfc
boundary south across central Indiana. An elevated reflection of
this boundary lags back across northeast Indiana and has been
responsible for a few isolated showers across NW Ohio. With
brunt of upper forcing skirting across the eastern Great Lakes,
additional isolated shower development is expected to remain
east of KFWA, and will maintain dry forecast. Southward sagging
boundary will promote northeast winds less than 10 knots today.
Winds will veer easterly just beyond this forecast valid period
for late tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili