Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 222349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
749 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Low pressure moving south of the Ohio River will bring a chance for
a sprinkle or light shower to portions of eastern Indiana and
western Ohio late Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Highs
will be well in the 60s Monday and near 60 Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Deep upper low over wrn AR this aftn will spins out northeast into
nrn WV by late Tue. Rather vast plume of mid level moisture will
overspread the area s-n in the aftn with perhaps a sprinkle or light
shower across far srn zones late day. However given extent of old
polar airmass holding firm within low level anticyclone sprawled
through the lakes and both track of upper system well south/lack of
better moisture inflow farther north cut pops appreciably.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Aforementioned system will phase with incoming secondary wave
sharpening through the lakes Wed. Based on good model consensus will
truncate pops associated with this feature further late Tue

Thereafter attention yet another following nrn stream sw disturbance
similarly progged to amplify considerably through the srn lakes late
Thu/early Fri with a period of frontally forced rain. Still modest
spread aloft seen in med range guidance and will generally follow
blended pops.

After that substantial ridging aloft builds east across the lakes
downstream of quite robust meridonal deep trough building over the
wrn US. This would point to very warm temps and dry wx manifesting
through the OH valley Days 8-11 (Sun-Wed).


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Quiet aviation weather this period as surface low pressure is slow
to move across the Mid MS Valley. Easterly flow will be maintained
given little progression in this pattern. Slow northward
migration. Slow eastward progression of upper low across the Mid
MS River Valley will result in gradual veering of low level winds
and better moisture transport. Scattered showers are expected to
lift into northeast Indiana late Monday afternoon as a weak vort
rotates through the parent upper low. With uncertainty in timing,
have indicated VCSH mention at KFWA toward the end of the period.
VFR conditions should persist through this forecast cycle, with
breezy conditions developing once again Monday afternoon.





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