Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
147 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Low pressure moving south of the Ohio River will bring a chance for
a sprinkle or light shower to portions of eastern Indiana and
western Ohio late Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Highs
will be well in the 60s Monday and near 60 Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Deep upper low over wrn AR this aftn will spins out northeast
into nrn WV by late Tue. Rather vast plume of mid level moisture
will overspread the area s-n in the aftn with perhaps a sprinkle
or light shower across far srn zones late day. However given
extent of old polar airmass holding firm within low level
anticyclone sprawled through the lakes and both track of upper
system well south/lack of better moisture inflow farther north cut
pops appreciably.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Aforementioned system will phase with incoming secondary wave
sharpening through the lakes Wed. Based on good model consensus
will truncate pops associated with this feature further late Tue

Thereafter attention yet another following nrn stream sw
disturbance similarly progged to amplify considerably through the
srn lakes late Thu/early Fri with a period of frontally forced
rain. Still modest spread aloft seen in med range guidance and
will generally follow blended pops.

After that substantial ridging aloft builds east across the lakes
downstream of quite robust meridional deep trough building over
the wrn US. This would point to very warm temps and dry wx
manifesting through the OH valley Days 8-11 (Sun-Wed).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Upper level
vortex translating from AK into western TN through the period with
increasing amount of mid level moisture advancing northward.
Slight chance of sprinkles/light rain into KFWA late in the
period, though confidence sufficiently low enough for only VCSH
mention at this time.





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