Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
156 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible east of Interstate
69 through late afternoon. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, dry and much warmer weather is
ahead with highs mostly in the 80s from Wednesday through the end of
the week. Lows will be in the 50s.



Have expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to encompass the entire
area through 15Z. By this point, low level mixing should quickly
dissipate the fog. also added mention of fog for Wednesday morning.
There is some potential for this fog to become dense west of I-69
given light winds and abundant low level moisture from previous
rain. Watch for update for the Wednesday morning commute.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas of dense fog have developed across the western zones and
over the lake this morning. Expect this fog to persist into the
late morning hours. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible into the afternoon hours primarily
across the far southeastern zones. PWAT values remain
climatologically high for late MAy so any storms that develops
would be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A cold front
will push through the evening to bring a close to our rain
chances through the overnight hours. High temperatures are
expected to range from 60s across the north and west with 70s
across the south and east. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s
for much of the area.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Upper level ridging sets up over the region by Wednesday and will
persist through the end of the work week. This will result in dry
and warmer weather with high temperatures each day being about 5
degrees above season averages for late May. As the Memorial Day
weekend starts a pattern change is on the horizon. Height falls
over the area as a pair of upper lows emanate out of Manitoba
will bring off and on rain chances back to the area into the early
parts of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Expect gradually improving conditions at the TAF sites through early
evening as a cold front continues eastward across northern Indiana
and Northwest Ohio. Northwest winds behind this front will diminish
to light and variable overnight, and skies are expected to clear out-
which makes another fog scenario possible late tonight/early
Wednesday morning. For now, have medium confidence in conditions
deteriorating from VFR to MVFR after 2z at KSBN and 08z at KFWA,
and then to IFR after 9/10z at both sites. Expect improvement to
VFR by late Wednesday morning.


LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-046.




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