Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 212320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
720 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Temperatures will continue to moderate through Monday as a weak
high pressure area remains over the region with highs in the upper
50s today and the lower 60s Sunday. Highs will finally rise above
normal Monday into the upper 60s to near 70. Small chances for
showers may arrive Monday into Tuesday and again by Thursday


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Touch of mid level forcing responsible for cloud cover and even
some sprinkles upstream will continue to weaken into early
evening. Can`t rule out a stray sprinkle somewhere but not worthy
of anything in the grids, The clouds have put a bit of a damper
on highs thus far but not substantially. Clouds will thin tonight
into Sunday with increasingly warmer air arriving to send highs in
the 60s across the area for the afternoon. Strong mixing will also
allow lower dewpoints and respective humidity values than most
models are depicting. Manually adjusted for this as much as


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Upper low will move slowly drift into the lower Ohio Valley
through Tuesday, eventually allowing for some moisture to be
thrown back NW in the area. Models continue to print out some
light QPF but dry air mass will likely be fighting hard warranting
a tempering of blended models to no more than slgt chc showers
initially and then low chc there after. Secondary wave will move
in behind it but impacts may be further south and limit moisture
return ahead of frontal boundary mid week. Still keeping with
period of chc pops Thurs ngt on but low confidence on how things
will evolve. Warmest day still appears to be Monday with potential
for 70+ depending on amount of cloud cover. Temps will cool off
somewhat but back to near normal levels in the upper 50s to mid
60s so much better than what has been seen of late.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sheared vort max across the southern Great Lakes has allowed for
weak response in terms of weak low/mid level fgen forcing.
Subcloud layer is quite dry and have had a few reports of some
sprinkles across NW Indiana. Any lingering sprinkles will
dissipate early this evening with just some mid level cloud
tonight. Some clearing is expected toward morning, although mid
clouds may linger into Sunday at KFWA and points southward. Light
east winds tonight will show some increase into the 10 to 15 knot
range with diurnal mixing late Sunday morning, with some gusts
near 20 knots possible Sunday afternoon.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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