Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

FXUS63 KIWX 140433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1233 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

A few more rounds of snow showers are possible during the
overnight hours tonight especially closer to the lake, in extreme
northern Indiana, extreme southern Michigan and northern portions
of northwest Ohio. Accumulations up to an inch are possible in
the heaviest snow showers. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow
through the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Brief lake effect expected to develop this evening within trailing
upper vort axis. However general lack of organization likely given
marginal background thermal troughing and lower inversion heights
compared to this aftn. Otherwise this activity will taper by sunrise
Wed as subsidence aloft takes over along with increasing low level
dry entrainment.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Rest of the forecast period exceptionally quiet with next decent
chance of precip not until Mon/Tue of next week. A few more
shortwaves will dive into the eastern Lakes Wed-Fri but appear weak
enough and east enough to prevent measurable precip in our CWA. A
few flurries may be possible Thu morning but highly unlikely. Latest
deterministic models consistent in showing a dry/subsident
environment locally with elongated surface ridge building into the
region Thu-Sat. Will have to keep an eye on initial wave shearing
east on Sat. Models have been struggling with evolution of large
western CONUS negative height anomaly and downstream effects. This
wave could clip our area Sat...but held with dry conditions for now.
Temps do remain on the chilly side through the week with a
persistent northerly component to the flow and no good SW flow/WAA
for the foreseeable future.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Lake effect plume in deep/cold north-northwest flow will continue
to impact KSBN early this morning with variable flight conditions
and snow showers. Backing flow/subsidence should bring an end to
lake effect activity toward daybreak, though a few flurries could
continue through 13/14z across northern Indiana. VFR/drying


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

Visit us at

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.